The first half of the 2025 U.S. fiscal year, covering October 2024 to March 2025, has revealed some notable shifts in international student mobility. According to new data from ApplyBoard, while the total number of U.S. student visas issued in this period has dipped compared to the previous year, the demand remains far stronger than it was before the pandemic. At the same time, changes in policy, regional trends, and emerging markets are reshaping the landscape of who is coming to study in the United States—and how.
In total, nearly 89,000 F-1 student visas were issued in the first half of FY2025, down 15% from the same period in FY2024. While that sounds like a significant decline, it’s important to note that the first half of the fiscal year typically accounts for only a quarter of all student visa issuances. The major rush tends to occur in the second half, as students prepare for the U.S. fall intake beginning in August and September.
What has begun to affect this year’s numbers more tangibly, however, was the unexpected disruption to visa processing. In May and June 2025, the U.S. temporarily paused new student visa appointment slots to implement expanded social media vetting procedures. This caused delays and uncertainty for thousands of prospective students, prompting many institutions to issue urgent guidance encouraging applicants to submit documentation early and request expedited processing where possible.
While the overall issuance figures dipped, what’s particularly interesting is the distribution of those numbers across different countries. Indian students, who had become the leading group of F-1 visa recipients in recent years, saw a sharp drop. Visa issuances to Indian nationals fell 44% in the first half of FY2025 compared to the year before, from approximately 26,000 to just under 15,000. This aligns with a broader trend: Indian student numbers have also fallen in other major study destinations like Canada, the UK, and Australia over the past year. Whether this is a temporary correction or a sign of something more structural is still unclear.
Meanwhile, China saw a 24% decline in F-1 visa issuances compared to the previous year. That number, while notable, actually brings Chinese student volumes closer to pre-pandemic levels, suggesting a stabilisation more than a collapse. In 2022 and 2023, the number of Chinese students entering the U.S. rebounded from pandemic lows. The recent data implies that the recovery has now plateaued. If current trends continue into the second half of the fiscal year, there’s even a chance China could once again overtake India as the top sender of students to U.S. institutions.
Perhaps the most striking growth story from the report is Vietnam. Vietnamese student visa issuances rose by 20% compared to the same period last year, propelling Vietnam into third place behind India and China as a source market. This reflects a longer-term growth trend: Vietnamese students have increasingly viewed the U.S. as a top education destination, and ApplyBoard reports high levels of engagement, particularly in STEM fields. For institutions looking to diversify their enrolment base, Vietnam may well be the country to watch.
Beyond the big three—India, China, and Vietnam—ApplyBoard’s data hints at rising interest from a broader array of countries. Though the H1 FY2025 report doesn’t break down numbers for all emerging markets, earlier analysis from the company has identified increasing student interest from countries such as Bangladesh, Pakistan and Colombia. This could signal a wider shift in the global makeup of U.S. international students, with more geographically diverse cohorts taking shape in the years ahead.
Behind the numbers lie deeper forces. U.S. visa policy has become more complex in recent years, with increased scrutiny, evolving vetting processes, and changing global dynamics. The temporary appointment freeze in May and June underscored the unpredictability students and institutions now face. While more robust vetting is intended to protect system integrity, it can also slow the application process and create barriers for legitimate students. Universities are responding by offering more guidance, pushing early applications, and monitoring developments closely to adapt their outreach and planning.
Looking ahead to the rest of FY2025, much will depend on how quickly the U.S. State Department returns to normal operations and how students respond to new vetting requirements. Historically, the second half of the fiscal year sees three times as many F-1 visas issued as the first half, driven by the U.S. academic calendar. So while H1 numbers suggest a moderate slowdown, there’s still a good chance that overall visa issuances for FY2025 will meet or exceed totals from previous years—especially if pent-up demand is released in the coming months.
Ultimately, the ApplyBoard analysis paints a picture of a dynamic and shifting international education environment. While India’s lead appears to be narrowing, China is stabilising, and Vietnam is rising rapidly. These movements signal a more competitive and diverse global student market, one that U.S. institutions must navigate with care and adaptability. The broader lesson is clear: understanding the story behind the statistics is key, and success will belong to the institutions that can pivot quickly, engage meaningfully, and support students through an increasingly complex journey to study abroad.
