The Koala’s team of data scientists have unpacked the recently released visa data for January. As expected, it’s down down. Shockingly so.
Here’s the headlines:
Table 1 – The number of visas lodged grows
The number of visa lodgements grew from last year’s Financial YTD figure of 242,895 to 270,150. The folks marketing Australian International Education should be congratulated – demand is up across the three main sub-sectors of Higher Ed, ELICOS and VET.
| Sector | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | 2023-24 to 31 January 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Higher Education Sector | 116,077 | 119,158 | 71,835 | 79,928 | 138,577 | 165,796 |
| Independent ELICOS Sector | 24,399 | 25,298 | 3,849 | 5,821 | 34,796 | 29,988 |
| Vocational Education and Training Sector | 66,117 | 64,030 | 46,607 | 38,297 | 69,522 | 74,366 |
| Grand Total | 206,593 | 208,486 | 122,291 | 124,046 | 242,895 | 270,150 |
Table 2 – Granted for the financial year to date – note the drop from last financial year and versus the lodgement volume
The visa grants are, however, down from last year’s Financial YTD figure of 287,183 to 202,292. We can start to see what the sector has been feeding back over the past two to three months.
| Sector | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | 2023-24 to 31 January 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Higher Education Sector | 105,428 | 106,542 | 67,877 | 65,036 | 146,202 | 122,816 |
| Independent ELICOS Sector | 21,806 | 23,599 | 3,715 | 2,973 | 39,736 | 23,101 |
| Non-Award Sector | 11,464 | 11,784 | 310 | 810 | 9,389 | 8,887 |
| Postgraduate Research Sector | 3,981 | 4,167 | 3,330 | 3,219 | 5,638 | 5,381 |
| Schools Sector | 5,966 | 5,988 | 1,646 | 1,374 | 5,796 | 5,910 |
| Vocational Education and Training Sector | 48,177 | 53,198 | 40,085 | 31,362 | 80,422 | 36,197 |
| Grand Total | 196,822 | 205,278 | 116,963 | 104,774 | 287,183 | 202,292 |
Table 3 – Ratio of Grants to Lodgements (Nov, Dec and Jan)
The ratios of December and January against a benchmark of July 23- Nov 23 are stark. We can see just how hard immigration went in December. There is much to be said about immigration seeing more “fraud” or other rationales for rejections. This data would appear to call that out as the fraud rates should not change this dramatically month to month (and never have in the past).
Ratio of Grants to Lodgements July 2023 - November 2023 Dec-23 Jan-24
Higher Education Sector 78% 58% 73%
Independent ELICOS Sector 84% 47% 73%
Vocational Education and Training Sector 59% 19% 27%
Table 4 – Grant rates for Jan only, HE, ELICOS and VTE had their lowest January on record
HE, ELICOS and VET had their lowest January grant rates on record.
Sector Jan 2024 Grant rate Jan 2023 Grant rate % Change
Higher Education Sector 87.4% 91.0% -3.9%
Independent ELICOS Sector 78.4% 93.6% -16.3%
Non-Award Sector 99.4% 99.6% -0.3%
Postgraduate Research Sector 98.2% 98.7% -0.5%
Schools Sector 94.3% 93.9% 0.5%
Vocational Education and Training Sector 57.6% 70.1% -17.8%
Grand Total 84.7% 87.3% -3.0%
Table 5 – YTD Grant rates by sector (Jan Only)
Those applying outside of Australia appear to have had a significantly harder time.
Sector Client Location 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 to 31 January 2024
Higher Education Sector In Australia 98.3% 98.8% 99.8% 97.6% 99.1% 97.9%
Outside Australia 92.4% 91.7% 93.2% 95.4% 84.0% 80.5%
Higher Education Sector Total 94.3% 94.5% 96.4% 96.0% 87.5% 83.4%
Independent ELICOS Sector In Australia 93.9% 94.0% 99.4% 83.4% 98.1% 90.3%
Outside Australia 88.7% 92.1% 81.4% 85.2% 90.4% 82.9%
Independent ELICOS Sector Total 89.8% 92.6% 94.8% 85.0% 91.2% 83.9%
Vocational Education and Training Sector In Australia 92.7% 92.9% 99.8% 91.9% 97.6% 84.5%
Outside Australia 60.7% 65.3% 54.2% 69.1% 51.5% 52.2%
Vocational Education and Training Sector Total 80.1% 87.0% 94.4% 84.0% 77.0% 69.2%
Grand Total 89.4% 91.8% 95.6% 91.4% 84.8% 80.2%
Table 6 – India Comparison
India’s overall grant rate has changed from 87.8% to 67.2%. This is even worse for offshore applicants, the rejection stamp is getting a workout in Delhi, especially through the months of Sept, Oct, and Nov.
Sector Client Location Month 2018-19 2023-24 to 31 January 2024
Higher Education Sector In Australia 97.3% 94.9%
Outside Australia M01 Jul 94.5% 72.3%
M02 Aug 85.2% 51.6%
M03 Sep 86.7% 43.0%
M04 Oct 84.4% 48.1%
M05 Nov 84.7% 59.5%
M06 Dec 83.8% 74.2%
M07 Jan 87.5% 83.0%
M08 Feb 89.3% 0.0%
M09 Mar 77.3% 0.0%
M10 Apr 70.7% 0.0%
M11 May 73.1% 0.0%
M12 Jun 82.9% 0.0%
Outside Australia Total 85.0% 64.4%
Higher Education Sector Total 87.8% 67.2%
Grand Total 87.8% 67.2%
Table 7 – Pakistan Comparison
Pakistan’s grant rate moved in January from 90.4% last year to 34.3% this year. Previous months are even worse.
Higher Education Sector In Australia 95.2% 92.8%
Outside Australia M01 Jul 89.7% 76.3%
M02 Aug 79.5% 56.5%
M03 Sep 76.4% 49.7%
M04 Oct 88.8% 24.0%
M05 Nov 89.9% 22.9%
M06 Dec 91.0% 27.3%
M07 Jan 90.9% 34.2%
M08 Feb 90.4% 0.0%
M09 Mar 81.2% 0.0%
M10 Apr 83.5% 0.0%
M11 May 84.5% 0.0%
M12 Jun 90.4% 0.0%
Outside Australia Total 87.7% 52.7%
Higher Education Sector Total 90.5% 56.2%
Grand Total 90.5% 56.2%
Table 8 – Colombia Comparison
There have been consistent reports from Colombia that students are being rejected, well, willy-nilly. Apologies the phrase just fits so well. ELICOS grant rates went from 93.5% last year to just 25.6% this year (Jan). Adios Colombia.
Sector Client Location Month 2018-19 2023-24 to 31 January 2024
Independent ELICOS Sector In Australia 97.8% 97.3%
Outside Australia M01 Jul 89.8% 91.8%
M02 Aug 95.5% 85.6%
M03 Sep 89.4% 76.5%
M04 Oct 90.4% 87.3%
M05 Nov 91.0% 71.5%
M06 Dec 88.0% 73.5%
M07 Jan 93.5% 25.6%
M08 Feb 94.7% 0.0%
M09 Mar 96.8% 0.0%
M10 Apr 94.6% 0.0%
M11 May 93.4% 0.0%
M12 Jun 93.1% 0.0%
Outside Australia Total 92.5% 78.5%
Independent ELICOS Sector Total 93.1% 80.6%
Table 9 – Bangladesh
It would appear of all the posts around the world, the immigration direction did not quite reach Dhaka in Bangladesh. The numbers for Higher Ed from Bangladesh have held firm.
Sector Client Location Month 2018-19 2023-24 to 31 January 2024
Higher Education Sector In Australia 97.6% 97.8%
Outside Australia M01 Jul 84.7% 92.5%
M02 Aug 83.3% 86.1%
M03 Sep 86.4% 83.3%
M04 Oct 94.8% 84.8%
M05 Nov 92.8% 86.6%
M06 Dec 93.8% 95.1%
M07 Jan 93.7% 92.8%
M08 Feb 89.6% 0.0%
M09 Mar 83.0% 0.0%
M10 Apr 85.2% 0.0%
M11 May 92.3% 0.0%
M12 Jun 92.7% 0.0%
Outside Australia Total 90.6% 89.6%
Higher Education Sector Total 93.6% 90.2%
Grand Total 93.6% 90.2%
The numbers don’t lie, and they paint a bleak picture of what’s been going on in immigration offices around the world, except, of course, Dhaka over the past few months. Let’s hope Team Australia can get on the same page, be more transparent and figure this out. Taking hard-earned money for visa applications and rejecting them based on a rationale that is inconsistent and liberally applied should stop.
It’s not who we are.
It’s not who we want to be.
