Australia is on track to meet (and even possibly slightly exceed) the Government’s indicative levels for new overseas student commencements (NOSCs) this year. According to the Department of Education’s International Education Providers – Progress Against 2025 Indicative Allocations report, released last week, the international education sector is projected to reach 102% of the total NOSCs allocated for 2025.
The report, which draws on data from the Provider Registration and International Student Management System (PRISMS) as of 12 September 2025, compares three categories of NOSCs levels:
- Current levels of NOSCs.
- Current levels of NOSCs plus those with approved visas to start in 2025.
- Current and future NOSC, which includes all current NOSCs plus those expected to start later this year.
This framework provides a clear snapshot of both current progress and the estimated level of NOSC for the end of 2025.
Sector-level differences
While the overall numbers suggest the sector will slightly be above the total allocated NOSCs for this year, the report reveals differences across sectors.
- Public universities, which collectively received an allocation of 145,300 NOSCs, are on track to reach about 95% of their allocated NOSCs.
- Other higher education providers with a combined allocation of 31,000 NOSCs are expected to surpass the target and reach 172% of their allocation.
- By contrast, the vocational education and training (VET) sector, allocated 93,000 places, is projected to fill only 90% of its allocated NOSCs.
The table below provides a summary of the data presented in the report and our calculations:
| Sector | 2025 Indicative allocation | Current (Students already commenced) | Current + future NOSCs | Share of allocation* |
| Higher education | 176,300 | 177,200 | 191,800 | Current & future = 109% Current = 101% |
| Public universities | 145,300 | 132,900 | 138,600 | Current & future = 95% Current = 91% |
| Other HE providers | 31,000 | 44,300 | 53,200 | Current & future = 172% Current = 143% |
| Vocational education & training (VET) | 93,000 | 67,700 | 83,300 | Current & future = 90% Current = 73% |
| Total | 269,300 | 244,900 | 275,100 | Current & future = 102% Current = 91% |
Why do some sectors exceed their allocation?
Unlike a strict cap on the total number of students, the current system slows visa processing once a provider hits 80% of its allocation. Under Ministerial Direction 111, offshore applications linked to providers that exceed this threshold are moved from high-priority to standard processing.
This policy effectively suppresses growth, but it does not cut off enrolments entirely.
As a result, many institutions are now actively redesigning elements of their student conversion process. By securing early acceptances for prospective international students, they aim to minimise delays that could otherwise prevent students from commencing their programs on time.
The data presented in this report indicates that 28 public universities have reached 80% of their allocated NOSCs. It is expected that the extent to which providers reach their allocations will vary significantly across the sector.
The Department is expected to provide this report weekly. You can access the full report here.
Keri Ramirez is a Director at Studymove Consultants.
