In Canada, there was a time, and it wasn’t long ago, that choosing to pursue a university degree over a community college education was a matter of distinction. How times have changed.
By 2019, Stats Canada was reporting a significant shift from university to community college studies amongst incoming international students, from 27% in 2000 to 41% international recruits favouring community college programs by 2019. It would appear that Ontario’s Provincial Attestation Letter (PAL) distribution strategy will only cause that trend to accelerate. According to data provided by a source close to the Ministry of Colleges and Universities (MCU), Ontario public colleges received 84% of public institution PAL designations (189,167), while public universities received only 16% (approximately 35,788). Provincial Attestation Letters have been needed to support (most) study permit applications to Canada as of January 22, 2024.
Canadian Colleges Way Stations for New Immigrants?
According to Statistics Canada, from 2015/2016 to 2019/2020, the number of international students at community colleges increased by 154 %, whereas the international growth at universities only increased by 40 %, an imbalance that has only amplified since COVID 19. In contrast, domestic enrolments at community colleges decreased from 665,718 to 639,936 over the same period. Despite shrinking domestic demographic pools of 18-25 year olds, domestic student enrolments at university increased slightly during the same period (1,136,721 to 1,141,998).
Coincidentally, in 2016 changes were made to Canada’s primary economic class immigration system (Express Entry) by adding points for those who came to Canada to pursue Canadian education. This change marked a rapid expansion of incoming students to Canada, and the onset of Canada’s perceived edu-immigration pathways, marketed by education agents abroad. Community colleges which offered short, more affordable programs, made marketing prospective international recruits much easier than it was for universities, especially in most areas of significant edu-export expansion (the global south).
The typical sales pitch adopted by overseas education agents: “study, work, immigrate” via investment in a 1 or 2 year program, became the everyman’s investor class immigration scheme. In 2021, the Federal department of Immigration, Refugee and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) conducted its own survey of 3,700 students and found that 87% of respondents intended to apply for Permanent Residence (PR). These findings, in conjunction with rising volumes of students and limited PR spots set in parliament’s annual immigration planning, led to concern about Canada’s ability to absorb intended student to Permanent Resident (PR) transitions. Internal memos from IRCC policy makers to senior staff warned that “disappointment is inevitable for tens of thousands of foreign students” and urged “Canada (to) take responsibility and mitigate the Express Entry design, that is guaranteed to produce crushed expectations.” The memo went on to read “People need to know and understand the risk of their investment in Canada. The credible source of information is IRCC, not the (education) agents facilitating the flow.”
In 2021, IRCC data showed 443,665 study permits were issued, while just over 85,000 Post Graduate Work Permit holders transitioned to Permanent Residence (PR) through economic class immigration programs. By 2023, the volume of study permits issued had increased to 683,235 and the targets for new Permanent Residents had been frozen by Parliament, drastically increasing competition amongst graduates for limited permanent immigration opportunities. Canada uses a comprehensive ranking system score as a main tool for economic class immigrant selection. In 2021, the lowest prevailing Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score was 75 CRS, in 2023 the lowest prevailing score in a non-specialized draw was 481 CRS; in 2024 none lower than 524 CRS.
In the summer of 2023, IRCC instituted a new Category Based Selection (CBS) system to prioritize the selection of immigrants with in-demand occupation experiences (as well as French speaking nationals). Those with eligible work experience have the potential to be selected at much lower CRS scores. However, it is worth noting that this new CBS system was introduced after the volume of international students and graduates in country had well passed the million persons mark, most of whom were admitted as students to Canada with little or no consideration how their education program was suited to Canada’s employment needs.
Colleges Meet Canadian Labour Market Needs?
Ontario colleges produce yearly Key Performance Indicator (KPI) data sets, and often flaunt the results to perspective international students during the overseas recruitment process. For example, in 2020-2021 the average graduate employment rate amongst public community colleges in Ontario was listed as 77%, a figure that creates a reasonable expectation of graduates finding a job (assumably in a field related to their program of study in Canada). However, a Freedom on Information Act query revealed that the graduate response rate to that survey was less than 18% with less than 10% of graduates having been actually confirmed as employed in fields related to their Canadian education program.
Recently, in an unusual reckoning, MCU sent a private memo to institutions in Ontario placing a moratorium on one-year business programs (which were amongst the most popular pursuits of incoming international students since at least 2018). The cause of the moratorium? “With the Federal cap, it is equally as important that applications are focused on programs with high value to institutions and international students”, the memo read. This would seem to be an acknowledgement that what has been good for colleges in Ontario ($), has not always been good for international students themselves.
Further, data has shown university graduates have higher income ranges and lower unemployment rates than community college graduates experience.
Preserving Market Trends
In January 2024 the Federal Department of Immigration, Refugee, Citizenship Canada (IRCC) issued a press release which blamed “bad actors” for irresponsibly increasing the volume of international students coming to Canada. Federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller, under pressure to counterbalance housing shortages and related public concerns over the record number of Non-Permanent Residents (NPRs) in Canada, decided Federal intervention was necessary.
According to Miller “some institutions have failed to find balance between profits and quality standards and conditions available to incoming students”. Ontario’s public colleges alone accounted for more than 40 per cent study permits issued to colleges and universities nationwide in 2023.
Provincial Attestation Letters (PALs) were introduced by the Federal Government of Canada to help stem the flow of international students entering Canada. Since the PAL announcement, most new study permit applications (with notable exemptions for study permits extensions, MA studies and K-12) would have to be accompanied by a PAL to be eligible for consideration. In Canada, pursuant to section 87.3 of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act the federal government can set incoming immigration quotas (and eligibility requirements, such as PALs), but PAL allocations to education institutions would remain at the discretion of the provinces due to exclusive jurisdiction over education, according to Canada’s constitution. In 2023, study permits were issued to 175,000 international students to study at Ontario’s public colleges, more than four times the number issued for the province’s universities.
The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) recently reported that nine of the top ten schools facilitating the highest volumes of incoming students were Ontario public colleges. Even when considering the new PAL “cap” implications, that ratio is not expected to experience any change.
Here is how MCU’s distribution of PALs stands to look in 2024:
