Australia’s international education sector has entered 2026 in a markedly different position from the post-pandemic surge of 2023, with fresh data revealing sharp divergence between higher education, VET and English language enrolments.
A recent sector briefing hosted by independent consultant Claire Field, Tracy Harris, international education expert and commentator and I walked participants through a detailed stocktake of where the sector stands today, and where it may be heading.
The webinar combined data depth with frontline authority. Claire Field anchored the session in rigorous analysis of enrolment trends, visa data and policy shifts, translating complex numbers into strategic insight. Tracy Harris brought a sharp executive perspective, unpacking how tightening settings and compliance pressures are impacting institutions in real time and what that means for governance and sustainable growth. I, hopefully, added sector context, linking the data to broader market sentiment and public debate.
Overall Growth Masks Sectoral Gaps
Year-to-date enrolment data to October shows that overall international student numbers are up compared with the same period in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic. However, that headline figure conceals significant shifts within the sector.
Higher education has consolidated its dominance, now accounting for 52 per cent of all international enrolments. By contrast, the English language (ELICOS) sector has seen its share fall dramatically — from 15 per cent pre-pandemic to just 8 per cent in 2025.
VET enrolments, which sat at around 29 to 30 per cent of total share before COVID, are only marginally ahead of that position now. After strong post-border reopening growth in 2023, tightening settings in 2024 and 2025 have slowed momentum.
The 2023 rebound reflected a government posture that was not only welcoming students back, but also keen to address labour shortages. As Field noted, international students were arriving at a time when “the economy was opening up” and workforce demand was high.
That environment has shifted considerably.
Visa Applications: A Divided Picture
Data from the first half of the 2025–26 financial year, compared with the same period in 2019, shows higher education visa applications up 30 per cent offshore. But offshore VET applications have fallen nearly 30 per cent, while English language visa applications have plunged by 50 per cent.
Onshore applications tell a different story. Across all sectors, visa applications lodged within Australia are down 10 per cent compared with pre-pandemic levels.
The divergence becomes even starker when examining grant rates.
Offshore higher education visa grant rates remain relatively stable at around 90 per cent. But VET offshore grant rates have dropped from the low 90s to below 80 per cent. English language offshore approvals have fallen from roughly 70 per cent to under 50 per cent.
The onshore picture is even more pronounced. Higher education visa grant rates have declined from close to 100 per cent to around 90 per cent. VET has experienced the sharpest contraction — from about 90 per cent pre-COVID to just over 50 per cent today. In practical terms, that means onshore VET applicants face roughly a 50–50 chance of approval.
The application of the Genuine Student test and broader integrity settings appear to be playing a central role in this shift.
Country-Level Variations
Grant rates also vary significantly by source country.
China continues to record approval rates above 90 per cent. Bangladesh is currently performing nearly as strongly. At the other end of the spectrum, approval rates for students from countries such as Pakistan sit just above 50 per cent.
These disparities are reshaping recruitment strategies and market confidence across institutions and agents alike.
The Rise of the NOSC
Layered over these trends is the introduction of a new metric now firmly embedded in sector vocabulary: NOSC — New Overseas Student Commencements.
As of 16 February, the sector had reached 53 per cent of its notional annual NOSC allocation. Around 60 per cent of commencements are in higher education, with 40 per cent in VET.
All publicly funded and private universities currently sit below 80 per cent of their overall NOSC allocations — placing them at what is described as “priority level one”.
The weekly publication of NOSC data by the Department of Education has been broadly welcomed as a transparency measure, even as institutions grapple with planning uncertainty.
A Structural Rebalancing
Taken together, the data suggests not merely a cyclical adjustment but a structural rebalancing.
Higher education has strengthened its relative position. English language providers are facing severe contraction. VET sits in a constrained middle ground, particularly impacted by tightening onshore visa approvals.
For sector leaders, the implications are significant: recruitment strategies must adapt to divergent grant rates by country; pathway models that rely on ELICOS may need rethinking; and onshore conversion strategies in VET face heightened risk.
The post-pandemic surge has given way to a more controlled and compliance-focused era. While total numbers remain strong compared with 2019, the composition of the market has changed, and with it, the risk profile.
As 2026 unfolds, the question is no longer whether the sector is growing, but where — and under what constraints.
The webinar can be seen below:
