International student visa grants data for 2024 contains some surprising figures. Despite the government’s efforts to block or deter international students, monthly visa grants in November and December 2024 exceeded the same months in 2023, a boom year, and pre-COVID in 2019. Have the government’s policies failed? Have the sector’s complaints about these policies been exaggerated?
The answer to both questions is generally no, although as of December 2024 parts of the international education market had successfully resisted government efforts to reduce their size.
Visa processing delays
The government has used visa processing delays to discourage applicants and slow down arrivals. The chart shows a processing go-slow from February to May 2024, which resulted in a huge backlog of more than 113,000 unprocessed applications by mid-2024.
In the second half of 2024 the Department of Home Affairs pushed up monthly processing levels. But for 2024 as a whole, total applications processed were well down on 2023 and slightly below 2019 levels.
Visa grants
Surprisingly high November and December 2024 grants were partly the by-product of processing catching up, of old applications finally approved. Higher visa grant rates also pushed numbers up. The overall grant rate of 89% in December 2024 was the best in two years. If this reflects improved understanding of changed processing policies and practices, with consequently better applications, the low approval rates recorded in early 2024 should not reoccur in 2025.
A strong finish did not, however, make 2024 a good year overall for visa grants. The 322,360 student visa grants in 2024 were down 24% compared to 2023 and fell by 12% compared to 2019. Just as they have since border closures in 2020 and 2021, Chinese students defied unwelcoming Australian government policy. In the second half of 2024 their visa grants were tracking above 2023 levels. But numbers from more migration-sensitive countries like India and the Philippines were down.
Vocational compared to higher education visa grants
As seen also in the student visa applications data, vocational education and higher education visa grants reflected sectors on different trajectories. Vocational visa grants dropped significantly compared to 2019 in September 2023 and have never recovered. The 2024 total of 45,371 was around half of 2019 or 2023 figures. A weak flow of vocational education applications ensures that visa grants will remain low. The one piece of positive news is that visa grant rates trended up in the second half of 2024. But the 63% grant rate in December 2024 was still well below the 83% recorded in 2019.
Like vocational education, higher education visa grants suffered in the first half of 2024 due to the visa processing go-slow. But unlike vocational education, higher education rebounded from June, to reach 209,060 visa grants for the year – up 9% on 2019 but down 13% on 2023. Grant rates of 94% in late 2024 are back to typical historical figures. The higher education sector could, based on application levels and grant rates recorded in late 2024, exceed the government’s target of 176,000 commencing students. It remains to be seen whether ‘voluntary’ compliance with the provider-level indicative caps will prevent this happening.
Onshore applications
The differences between vocational and higher education partly reflect different treatment of onshore compared to offshore applications. Vocational education is the more reliant sector on onshore applicants. By mid-2024 the onshore application backlog exceeded 80,000, 71% of the all on-hand applications. While the visa processing queue shrank in the second half of 2024, vocational applicants with higher education qualifications are vulnerable to the genuine student test, if it looks like they are enrolling to prolong their stay.
Rejected onshore applicants have created a second processing backlog, at the Administrative Review Tribunal rather than the Department of Home Affairs. More than 18,000 cases remained to be heard as of mid-October 2024. With just under half of heard appeals being successful, this could provide vocational education with a boost in 2025.
Conclusion
Due to variations in monthly processing levels, in the short term the number of visas granted is a less reliable indicator of student visa policy effects than visa applications. But unless withdrawn, all applications are eventually processed. Over the medium term we can see trends more clearly.
Both visa application and grant data show that the international vocational education sector is in deep trouble. At a sector level higher education is much healthier, although institutions relying on migration sensitive markets have suffered from policy change. The one general positive trend is increasing grant rates. In 2025, fewer prospective international students will waste money on unsuccessful applications.
A more detailed analysis of visa processing and grants can be found here.
Andrew Norton is a Professor of Higher Education Policy in the Monash Business School at Monash University.
