In late 2023, the federal government began implementing a long list of migration-related policies to reduce the number of international students. In August 2024, after the last of these policies took effect in July, I suggested a wait-and-see approach rather than rushing into legislated enrolment caps.
I have now analysed full 2024 student visa data to see what effect the migration related policies have had on student demand.
The headline result is that total student visa applications in 2024 are well down on the 2023 boom year, but still above 2019 levels. From the perspective of the government’s caps policy, the combined vocational and higher education total of 350,409 visa applications is significantly over their target of around 270,000 commencing students.
Looking at the statistics in more detail, vocational and higher education are on very different trajectories.
Vocational education has suffered a major loss of demand. The whole of 2024 visa application statistics – down 25% compared to 2023 and 6% compared to 2019 – hide how bad the situation has become.
In the first half of 2024, vocational education had some good months, especially in March and June, as applicants rushed to get in ahead of visa rule changes. But vocational education demand in the second half of 2024 was weak, down 36% compared to the same months in 2019. Applications lodged in December 2024 were the lowest for that month since 2013, including the COVID years.
If the average monthly vocational education applications in the second half of 2024 continues there is no way the sector could fully use its indicative cap of about 94,000 commencing students. They would fall about 20,000 students short on this demand figure alone. Due to vocational visa grant rates in the 60-something per cent range in late 2024, the enrolment shortfall would be much larger.
Migration policy alone has crippled international vocational education, making caps redundant at a sector level.
In higher education, demand in 2024 was 18% lower than in 2023, but compared to 2019, it is still strong. Despite all the restrictions and disincentives in place by July 2024, from September to December 2024, monthly visa application levels comfortably exceeded the same months in 2019.
Migration policies have not been a complete failure. Changing eligibility for the post-study temporary graduate visa to create a maximum age of 35 rather than 50 for most graduates has cut demand for student visas. There was a big drop in student visa applications from people aged 30-34 years, many of whom would turn 35 before they finish their course. This change helps explain drops in demand from migration-sensitive source countries such as India and Pakistan.
Despite fewer applications in some segments of the higher education market, the sector is trending above its indicative cap for 2025 commencing students of about 176,000. This may confirm a view in the government that some higher education providers will not voluntarily constrain themselves, making caps necessary.
How the higher education sector responds to the current ‘indicative’ caps will be crucial to the politics of international education in 2025. While there is no strict cap, if universities go for major growth that will give the government – whether Labor or Liberal after the federal election – grounds for having another go at legislated caps.
Andrew Norton is a Professor of Higher Education Policy in the Monash Business School at Monash University.
