The Koala has had a flurry of calls over the past 48 hours. The question on people’s lips? Is the government really considering capping international students?
Channel 7 Sunrise ran a story on Sunday: “The Federal Government is set to unveil a major overhaul to our country’s immigration laws and are this morning considering a cap on international student numbers.”
Furthermore, a piece penned by James Campbell in NewsCorp press broadsheets over recent days entitled “Plan to tax foreign students and cap numbers to ease housing crisis” states, “Government and Higher Education sources have told Newscorp that both measures are under active consideration to be included when the government reveals its migration strategy next month.”
Caps? All the information the Koala has been able to obtain from sources inside and outside of the government was that there were no caps on the table nor were they being planned.
The Koala has held off writing anything to date as the information presented simply could not be verified.
So why is the story being run by the mainstream media?
It turns out that Assistant Treasurer Stephen Jones appeared on Q and A last week. When talking of the migration review, he responded to a statement by economist Chris Richardson that foreign student numbers needed to be capped with, “I agree with Chris, we need to look at the student stuff.”
This was also covered by James Campbell of NewsCorp in a piece titled “Foreign Student Tax Plan”.
Was this a slip of the tongue by the Assistant Treasurer?
It is possibly not the best move as it undermines stability and certainty ahead of looming reviews. The sector is already second-guessing how five reviews are set to land in the next month or so are going to be neatly brought together and sold as improving the ‘integrity’ and ‘quality’ of the sector.
So, what’s going on with the Assistant Treasurer not shutting down caps? The Koala suggests two of four things are happening at the moment.
- Caps are on the table but those in the know haven’t been upfront with the sector setting up a scenario of mistrust into the future.
- Caps aren’t happening but the strategy is to put the fright of God into sector while looking strong on migration (remember the accommodation crisis)
- There’s a certain Assistant Treasurer who’s had a very stern talking to in the last 48hrs.
- The opposition are meddling in a media campaign to force the hand of the government.
The Koala puts 20 bucks on #2 and #4.
The Assistant Treasurer wasn’t talking to our sector when he said what he said.
The accommodation crisis isn’t going away anytime soon, and the government must sure up its rhetoric in this area.
International students don’t vote. And as has been proven time and time again, there are few votes in education more generally.
The scenario that the Koala can’t quite get his head around is that international students are also good for business. They provide a stable, flexible workforce. Remember COVID and the business lobby going hard at opening up work rights further?
To quote a source who wishes to remain unnamed, “I think the sector can’t help but be left with the feeling of being used and abused – more recently to cover workforce shortages and now as a scapegoat for the housing crisis. We should be talking about how the sector creates jobs and attracts much-needed talent. One step forward, two steps back.”
The Koala thinks this is a very astute observation.
#4: Conspiracy theory
Perhaps the opposition has caught wind that caps aren’t on the table and by pushing this angle feel they can win political points. If the government releases the migration review without caps they can say “What happened to caps, you’re letting down hard-working Australians who are struggling to pay the rent and find accommodation” Or, if they do include caps well, frankly nothing to see here. They are forcing the hand of the government.
In any of the above scenarios for the Assistant Treasurer to not take the opportunity to support the contribution of International Students and the International Education sector to our country does signal that the government believes there are too many international students or at the very least these conversations have taken place – rightly or wrongly.
When comparing student numbers this year to the past year and saying there is 31 PC is amateur. We do know that last year was a COVID rebound year. It would appear they’re cherry-picking statistics to create a narrative that will only end up being bad news for a sector starting to cripple under the weight of uncertainty from a government that is about to intervene significantly in market forces.
Visas
According to many, it appears a slow down has already started. Recently visa assessment times have blown out from multiple markets including China and India from 29 days of 90 per event being assessed to 57 days.
Furthermore, The Koala has also heard increasing anecdotal evidence of visa rejections for seemingly no reason. Yup, it appears it is starting again. The Koala will investigate this further over the coming days.
For these reforms to be successful, the government need to play with a straight bat and bring the sector on the journey. The line that we’re fixing the mess of the last government is starting to wear thin across a multitude of sectors currently under review.
