One of the highlights of the opening session of last week’s Australian International Education Conference (AIEC) was a welcome to Melbourne by two international high school students. The students were incredibly articulate and confident, and even AIEC MC Stan Grant told the following speaker, Victorian Deputy Premier Ben Carroll, that he had big shoes to fill. We’ll come back to these two students shortly.
In August, the Australian Government set a National Planning Level (NPL) of 270,000 new overseas student commencements for 2025, announcing that enrolment caps would apply to higher education and vocational education and training (VET) providers. The Government also announced that the schools sector would be one of the cohorts excluded from the NPL, meaning that no caps would be imposed on how many new international students schools can enrol next year.
However, many in the schools sector argue that, despite being formally exempt from the caps, they are not truly exempt due to the uncertainties caused by the Government’s intention to impose caps on universities and VET providers.
“Our international students now face the prospect of being unable to pursue post-secondary study in Australia, despite achieving academic results that meet or surpass those of their domestic counterparts. Given the significant financial and personal commitments their families have made, the lack of consultation, clarity, and consideration is extremely disappointing,” said Bill Cooney, Head of International Education & Senior Japanese Teacher at Lourdes Hill College.
Confusion in the market
One of the challenges for education agents who recruit for the schools sector is navigating the complexity of which cohorts are exempt from enrolment caps, according to Tracey O’Halloran, Managing Director, AEAS, a leading provider of assessment services for international school students.
O’Halloran says that there “is a fair bit of confusion among some education agents”, particularly more junior staff or less informed agents, with some thinking that caps also apply to the schools sector.
Reputational damage
It’s true that there have never been any guarantees that an international schools student would be accepted to an Australian university post-completion of secondary schooling. Students still needed to meet university entry requirements, achieving the entrance score required for the course they want to enrol in.
Regardless, the Australian schools sector has been an attractive proposition for students and their parents, as it provides a smoother pathway to study at an Australian university than a high school education overseas. At the same time, enrolling in an Australian school is a big financial commitment, especially as there are usually longer terms plans for a tertiary education.
Now, the reputational damage that is being caused to Australia by the planned imposition of caps is flowing to the schools sector. And agents, parents and students are assuming that their pathway is more difficult.
It could be argued that the “compact” between schools and students and their parents is deeper than that of tertiary education providers. There is an additional responsibility associated with recruiting students who are under the age of 18, than with students who are considered independent adults.
The schools sector often relies on a single staff member to handle the recruitment, marketing and student management process. As a result, these staff members may face the full impact of disappointment from students and their families if enrolment caps prevent students from reaching their educational goals in Australia.
According to the Independent Schools Australia supplementary submission to the Senate Committee inquiry into the Education Services for Overseas Students Amendment (Quality and Integrity) Bill 2024, “Students completing Year 12 in an Australian secondary school, either onshore or offshore, need certainty about their academic pathways before beginning secondary school studies”.
Added complexity for universities
According to the Department of Home Affairs Student visa and Temporary Graduate visa program report at 30/06/23, almost 3200 international schools students in Australia were granted a further visa for higher education or vocational education and training in the 2022-23 financial year. And although there is no post-COVID data, in 2018, 62 per cent of schools students completing their first schools course went on to another course in Australia, according to the Department of Education’s data on pathways for international students on a student visa.
Until now, universities have sometimes made early, conditional, offers to schools students. One of the challenges now facing Australian universities is determining what places to make available under their caps for schools students each year, as these students don’t receive their final marks until December, or sometimes even January, each year. The challenge will be trading off an applicant from overseas that already meets the admission requirements with a schools student who may or may not.
Brett McGeorge, Director, Marketing and Business Development, AEAS argues that Australian universities should be keeping places available under their caps for international students to pathway from Australian schools. “Our kids are a really good, safe bet for the universities”, he said. “Schools students are high quality, have completed an Australian year 12 qualification and have an ATAR (Australian tertiary entrance score)”.
Schools students have usually studied for at least two years and sometimes three or more, before entering tertiary education, meaning that they have already adapted to the Australian study context and academic rigour, have support networks including with domestic students, and have cultural understanding.
“They also have well and truly established their credentials as genuine students”, McGeorge said.
TNE
For many years, Australian schools have been successfully delivering the Senior Secondary Certificate of Education, such as SACE, QCE, HSC, and VCE, transnationally for students wishing to pursue tertiary education in Australia. Unfortunately, these courses will not be exempt from caps, according to the Government’s recent fact sheet detailing the criteria international students of transnational education programs will need to meet to be exempted. (TKN 241024)
Competition from international schools
The added layer of enrolment caps at the tertiary level may make Australian schools a less attractive proposition, especially given the growth in the number of international schools in source markets. A white paper released by ISC Research, How do International Schools Prepare Students for Higher Education?, reports that the number of international schools has risen by 10 per cent in the last five years, and the student body has increased by 13 per cent.
Asia dominates the international schools market, containing 57 per cent of all international students, with 14 per cent located in China and India alone (Australia’s top two source markets for international students).
Future exemptions
The schools sector has always been the smallest of the sectors enrolling international students in Australia, at around two per cent of total enrolments. This was one of the rationales for the sector being exempt from the NPL.
But it’s worth noting that exemptions from caps will not be legislated in the ESOS Amendment Bill. When the Bill passes, as we expect it will with only minor amendments later in November, the Education Minister of the day will decide which exemptions will apply.
In my submission to the ESOS Amendment Bill inquiry, I advocated for the schools sector to be one of the exempt cohorts. Now I know we really needed to advocate for an exemption for graduating schools students who pathway to an Australian tertiary education provider. This needs to be a priority for 2026.
Finally, back to our two international high school students who spoke so eloquently at the AIEC. I hope that there will be an available place under the cap at the universities they want to go to. Those universities will be very lucky to have them.
The schools sector by the numbers:
- As at YTD July 2024, there were 18,840 enrolments in the schools sector in Australia and 10,147 commencements. Most students are enrolled at the secondary school level.
- In 2023, there was a total of 15,837 enrolments; in 2019 it was 25,460, and since 2016, the peak enrolments for the schools sector was 26,710 in 2018.
- There are 337 unique CRICOS provider codes for institutions offering primary and secondary school to international students.
- The top ten countries for enrolments in Australia in 2023 were: China, Vietnam, Hong Kong, South Korea, Germany, Japan, Cambodia, Italy, India, and Taiwan.
