Since October 2023 the government has introduced nine migration policy changes affecting international students. A tenth change, to permanent residence visa criteria, is expected later in 2024.
Rather than proceeding with enrolment caps, I have suggested waiting to see what effect migration policy has before proceeding with enrolment caps on international students. If we can avoid the market distortions and bureaucratic chaos of caps we should.
Since I made this argument the Department of Home Affairs has released another month of student visa data. Importantly, this includes July 2024 when several policy changes came into effect – more than doubling the visa application fee to $1600, banning onshore applications from visitor or temporary graduate visa holders, and making the temporary graduate visa less attractive.
Onshore applications
All three of these changes affect onshore applicants. Surprisingly the aggregate July 2024 onshore student visa application numbers show nothing unusual. For both vocational and higher education, applications are similar to July 2023 and my pre-COVID comparison point, which averages the figures for July 2017 and July 2018.
Due to visa processing delays, migration policy changes take a while to show in visa grants. But visa grant data includes the applicant’s previous visa, offering clues as to what might be going on.
This data shows that the banned onshore visa applicant categories were already in decline, while applicants moving to another student visa jumped by nearly 60% to reach the largest ever July non-COVID number.
Offshore applications
July 2024 offshore higher education applications were down 45% on July 2023. Although this is a large decrease, 2023 was a boom year. July 2024 figures are a little higher than in the comparison years.
The biggest changes are in source countries. While applications from China fell slightly between July 2023 and 2024, the number was still higher than before COVID.
Higher education applications from India, by contrast, were down by 68% compared to 2023 and dropped 28% on the pre-COVID comparison months. The government’s student deterrence policies affect Indian applicants more than Chinese – Indians are less likely to be able to afford the increased savings requirement or visa application fee, face a greater risk of losing their money due to higher visa rejection rates, and are more affected by visa processing delays due to ministerial direction 107.
Higher education July 2024 offshore application totals look like the end of a boom but not the start of a collapse. In vocational education, the boom has clearly turned to bust. Compared to July 2023, offshore applications are down nearly 80%. Compared to the pre-COVID years applications are down by two-thirds. Other than the COVID years, the 1,094 offshore vocational visa applications received in July 2024 was the lowest July result since 2006.
July 2024, however, was not the turning point. Offshore vocational applications crashed in April 2024, after English language requirements increased in March and the new genuine student test began. News of visa grant rates below 50% since late 2023 made applying for a vocational a visa a $710 gamble. A $1600 bet from July will seem even less attractive.
Visas granted
In July 2024 higher education visa grants were down on July 2023 but still above pre-COVID levels. In vocational education, numbers are well below 2023 and pre-COVID figures, but do not yet reflect the disastrous decline in offshore applications.
Delays in visa processing weaken the relationship between visa applications and grants. The second half of 2024 may include some good visa grant months as the Department of Home Affairs works through a backlog. Some queued applications will be assessed on criteria applying before policy changes in March and July 2024, increasing their chances of success.
Caps and visas
In vocational education, caps look redundant at the sector level. The cap is set at 95,000 commencing students for 2025, but at average monthly grant levels so far in 2024 less than 50,000 new vocational student visas will be issued annually. That visa grant number will fall further, as it includes offshore applications made in March 2024 and earlier, before demand dropped significantly.
In higher education, the commencing student cap for 2025 is 175,000. On 2024 to date average monthly visa grant levels, 215,000 higher education visas would be allocated annually. While some visas will go to categories of students not counted towards caps, on the migration evidence to date, 2025 commencing higher education numbers could still exceed 175,000. Applications data over the coming months will show whether this conclusion needs to be revised.
Andrew Norton is a Professor in the Practice of Higher Education Policy, Australian National University
