Methodology, data accuracy and consultation with institutions were under the microscope at recent Senate hearings with many Senators expressing their displeasure at the Department of Education processes.
The Koala understood that the Department of Education was to rectify any data discrepancies by meeting with institutions that had not been able to match data and contacting the Department on the matter. While a meeting may have taken place, one institution believes that having the original numbers still in the public domain is not good.
The University of Sydney Vice-Chancellor Mark Scott addressed the issue in an All-Staff Email seen by the Koala, sent on Thursday, 31 October.
It states:
International student caps
Preparing for the implementation of legislation that has yet to pass the parliament is complex, particularly when there is concern about the Federal Government’s modelling and data accuracy. We couldn’t replicate the Commonwealth Department of Education’s preliminary estimate of the number of new international students we enrolled in 2024 until we met with them recently to understand their methodology. In that meeting, they also confirmed the University of Sydney number they provided to Parliament last month was a significant over-estimate.
The Department’s published estimate of 17,247 new international student commencers in 2024 overstated our actual new overseas student commencements by more than 3,000 students. In fact, in 2024 we expect to have enrolled about 14,050 new international students as defined by the Department, up from 12,790 in 2023.
The Department’s estimate incorrectly indicated a year-on-year growth rate of 35 percent in 2024, compared to an actual growth rate of less than 10 percent. The widespread use of these incorrect estimates means that the public debate about the growth of our international student cohort has given a misleading picture of our actual rate of enrolment growth this year. The cap legislation is expected to come before the Senate in the final two sitting weeks of the year, which commence on 18 November. I’ll continue to keep you updated as that progresses.
Scott’s memo to staff is important as it points to accuracy and would appear that, using Scott’s nomenclature, “The widespread use of these incorrect estimates means that the public debate about the growth of our international student cohort has given a misleading picture of our actual rate of enrolment growth this year.”
Without a correction being publicly issued (or one the Koala can find), the Koala can only assume it serves the government’s agenda to let this stand and have the discussion continue.
As Scott finishes, the 18th of November is the next critical day in the journey of this legislation as the Senate is due to debate it. In the meantime, it may be worthwhile to ponder the published numbers, albeit noted as estimates, and question their accuracy as they are used in the public domain.
