International student asylum claims have soared in Canada over the last few years by upwards of 650%. The asylum claim data connects to political sensitivities surrounding the record number of Non-Permanent Residents (NPRs) residing in Canada (2.7 million). The bulk of NPRs (at least 1.5 million) are international students or graduates. As Canada approaches an election year, immigration volumes, in the face of a national housing affordability crisis, have been the source of much public criticism and concern nationally.
According to the data published by The Globe and Mail, 11,305 student asylum claims were made in 2023, which more than doubled from numbers recorded in 2022. Students registered with Seneca College (Public College, Greater Toronto Area) had the largest number of claims (615) in 2023 alone (in the past five years, 2018-2022 cumulatively, Seneca students had registered a comparable 695 ). Others in Ontario were not far behind, Niagara College (530) and Conestoga College (420).
As of the end of 2023, international students associated with Ontario public colleges are the most common asylum claimants. Nine of the top twenty sources of claims have originated from students at Ontario public colleges, many of which experienced the largest patterns of student growth over the same period nationwide.
The student asylum data raises further concerns about the integrity of Canada’s International Study Program (ISP) and adds salt to general public concern about NPR volumes. Over the last year, the Canadian federal government has been threatening a crackdown on unnamed “bad actors”, facilitating the entry of far more students than could be reasonably accommodated.
In January 2024, the federal Department of Immigration, Refugee, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) introduced a “temporary cap” to limit incoming volume. The cap intended to lower student arrivals by 35% and was to remain in place for two years, after which a more sophisticated framework is planned to be put in place. However, there is speculation that the freeze may last longer. IRCC has since announced its commitment to lower the volume of non-permanent residents and include incoming volume targets of NPRs in its annual immigration plan to appease public sentiment.
The new, lower NPR numbers coincided with IRCC’s 2023 freeze of new permanent residents target at 500,000 per year for 2025 and 2026. Both volumes of NPRs and PRs had increased dramatically under the Liberal government. Canada’s most recent version of its International Education Strategy (2019) was uncapped, with no target volumes referenced whatsoever.
The most recent clarification, provided by IRCC frames the cap as a zero net growth strategy, (“one-out, one-in”). According to the cap formula, the number of international students coming to Canada in 2024 should be the same as the number of students whose permits expire that same year. However, that formula does not necessarily offer a direct cut in the number of NPRs that entered as students. Typically, students whose study permit expire move on to post-graduation work permits (for one to three years). And as “one in, one out” implies. for numbers to reduce, those at the end of their authorized stay would actually have to leave the country.
Over time the volume of international students coming to Canada has increased exponentially from 637, 780 (2019) to 1,040,985 (2023) including a 29% increase from 2022-2023 when the issue of housing shortages was already a mainstream concern, prompting federal government action. The majority of the increase came at the community college level, which offers more affordable and shorter duration programs than do Canada’s universities, making college programs favourite pathways to pursue edu-immigration intentions. IRCC internal data (2021 survey of 3700 students) showed that a vast number of arriving students (87%) intend to apply for permanent residency.
With the increased volume of arrivals has come increased competition for limited number of available Permanent Resident spots available. Canada’s Express Entry systems and provincial nomination pathways have been overwhelmed with eligible applicants, resulting in even minor point disadvantages in scoring can leading to dead ends. During COVID 19 IRCC had issued large volumes of graduates multiple Post Graduate Work Permit extensions but has since announced no further extensions would be granted.
With large volumes of students and international graduates (most from the global south) who have invested heavily in perceived student to PR transition pathways that have failed to materialize, the trend of increased asylum claims is a trend to watch closely. Immigration consultants trying to provide services on the ground to large volumes of international graduates with status on the verge of expiry have raised concerns about the level of desperation and attempts to gain permanent status via non-genuine means. An increase in non-genuine marriages to illicit family sponsorship options, humanitarian and compassionate applications or non-bonafide status extension applications being the default options. Schemes involving labour market impact assessments or provincial nomination job offers being purchased to create PR transition options are also receiving increased media attention.
Despite the concerns related to public colleges, Ontario has awarded the vast majority of its cap space 186,167 to public colleges with only 35,788 provincial attestation letters going to the province’s universities.
