Despite anticipating additional harsh measures impacting the international education sector in Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ Budget announcement last night, as it turned out, we already knew what was coming. Tying international student limits for universities with how much accommodation they provide, and a reduction in net overseas migration, were the two key measures in the Budget that will significantly impact the international education sector.
Last Saturday, the government released its draft International Education and Skills Strategic Framework (see the TKN 130524 summary). One of the most controversial aspects of the Framework is the Government’s decision to cap how many international students can be enrolled in individual universities, and that this will be linked to the supply of new purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA).
The Budget connects pressure on the domestic housing market with increases in international students, and that requiring “universities to establish new, purpose-built student accommodation should they wish to increase their international student enrolments above their initial allocation” will assist with correcting Australia’s housing shortage. The Budget also requires that any new accommodation built will be available to both local and international students.
The dilemma that this creates for universities, as pointed out by Phil Honeywood, CEO, International Education Association of Australia in response to the release of the Framework, is that “reliance on universities providing more PBSA student accommodation would take years to put into place. Housing is a state and local government policy with little scope for Federal Government effective intervention unless it’s entirely on campus”.
Following a meeting with Federal Ministers on Monday, Mr Honeywood also reported to TKN (TKN 140524) that caps would not happen until after 1 January 2025 and that the PBSA is a “much longer game”.
Given this, it is not clear how this measure be implemented as part of the 2024-2025 Budget. But don’t worry, this will only occur “following consultation with the sector”.
There were no new measures in the Budget to achieve the already announced desired reduction in net overseas migration, with the Government instead referring to the Migration Strategy. The Budget forecasts an approximate halving of net overseas migration from 528,000 in 2022–23 to 260,000 in 2024–25. Net overseas migration is forecast to be cut even further in out years, down to 235,000 in 2026–27 and 2027–28.
What didn’t get a run in the Budget had been an anticipated massive hike in visa fees, although Mr Honeywood flags that “these are likely to go up significantly at a later date”.
Finally, in what some might say is a direct contradiction to the measures announced and anticipated, the Budget Overview states:
“Services exports are also expected to contribute to growth as the recovery in the number of international students and tourists continues.”
Those in the sector may, quite rightly, say ‘not for much longer’.
Keep your eyes out for more reporting on the Budget and its implications for the Higher Education and Vocational Education and Training sectors
