Canada’s federal Department of Immigration, Refugee and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has updated its 2023 Temporary Resident data; the results have Canada’s international education sector on edge.
The IRCC data set Temporary Residents: Study Permit Holders – Monthly IRCC Updates – Canada – Study permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s) became effective shows a dramatic decline in the volume of study permits issued to Indian students in the last quarter. A staggering 80% shrinkage when compared to 2022 numbers of the same period. 14,910 in 2023Q4 from 73,000 in 2022Q4.
Canada’s dependence on Indian nationals, to spur its growth in recent years is unmatched by competitor countries. According to a recent report by ICEF Monitor in 2022 Indian students accounted for 49% of the volume of international students in-country, where Indian students made up much less in other markets UK (29%), US (28%), Australia (17%).
The fourth quarter shrinkage did impact the annual market share Indian numbers in 2023. Approximately 216,000 new study permits were issued to Indian nationals of the total 579,000 issued (37% market share). In 2022 that market share had stood at a record 41%. This is the first decline in market share ever recorded for India, other than a very minor retraction in 2020 caused directly by COVID 19 pandemic entry/exit logistics.
Did Canada’s reduction of embassy staff in India, due to the well publicized row, have a negative impact on embassy processing capabilities? If so, or if it is just a matter of temporary political tension, (as IRCC Minister Marc Miller was quick to suggest) , that would probably turn out to be the best possible scenario for Canada. The alternative explanation is grimmer.
In 2023, a plethora of issues emerged that challenged the sustainability of Canada’s edu-export industry. The ability of Canada to accommodate large volumes of new student arrivals with affordable housing emerged in the news cycle. Canadian economist Mike Moffat outlined the impact housing affordability at meetings in Ottawa with new Immigration Minister Marc Miller and former Immigration Minister Sean Fraser (now responsible for housing).
Media began to focus on the impact of student volume on general housing affordability as well as access to public services like hospitals, daycares, you name it. There is some evidence that frustrations may be leading to negative impressions of international students themselves. In this context immigration levels have become a mainstream political issue, with an election on the horizon. Immigration levels were not an issue last election.
Adding fuel to that fire, it was discovered that Canada’s national statistics agency, Statistics Canada, had undercounted approximately 1,000,000 temporary residents, many of them international students, on the most recent census. This led to further concerns about strains on social services and impact on housing costs.
2023 also featured a lot of media reports on the poor post grad employment prospects that awaited international graduates in Canada. With waves of Indian students recruited to Canada to study in business related programs, international graduates raised concerns that they have been unable to find skilled post grad employment outside of entry level retail or food service positions. Available government data from Ontario (the destination province of most) shows that community colleges (which host the majority of Indian students) have only been able to confirm about ten percent of their graduates have secured employment related to their course of study in Canada. You read that dismal stat correctly.
A survey conducted by IRCC itself came to light, confirming that the majority of international students attending community colleges, were coming to Canada to permanently immigrate (87% of respondents). Yet the Conference Board of Canada (among other authorities) made it clear that was increasingly unlikely to happen. The growth in international student volume with settlement intention has proportionally far outpaced growth in Canada’s overall annual immigration targets. Canada’s immigration goals reserve space for multiple categories of immigrants. Running out of houses, running out of doctors, already run out of immigration spots. Repeat next year, but worse.
Concerns about academic standards , quality of education, availability of student services were further lowlights in 2023. Freedom of Information Act releases showed among the greatest areas of Indian student enrollment growth were Public College-Private Partnerships (PCPP) institutions or other satellite campuses – often newly rented buildings lacking in student facilities (libraries for example) in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). These institutions have been widely criticized as something more akin to student warehouses than legitimate education institutions. A previous government commissioned report had recommended they be shut down entirely.
Canada’s highest inflation in a 40 year period, and cost of living issues saw countless reports of Indian students overwhelming food banks and in some cases being denied further services due to frustration over available supplies. The government of Canada’s rebuttal was to more than double the cost-of-living requirements for study permit applicants. This move was meant to dissuade marginal applicants, many of those from India, from applying to study in Canada at all. Up until then, Canada had been perceived as amongst the cheapest study destinations for Indians, a comparative bargain over competitors.
Canada may have come to a point where the main reasons Indian students select Canada as a study destination are no longer tenable. Indian press coverage of these issues has often been more thorough than the stories produced by Canadian media. So, is the number drop an indication of a bad quarter, maybe several? Or is this the new status quo?
