The clearing fog from the Canadian government’s recent surprise announcement to reduce incoming international student applications in 2024 is showing that the country will have some winners and losers.
Data from ApplyBoard released on February 9 shows that a shift is likely to take place with a redistribution of cap allotments across each province.
Ontario, which was the province with the most private-public partnerships, is expected to take the brunt of the hit with ApplyBoard forecasting a drop to 236,373 approved applications in 2024, down 133,404 from 2023.
The Council of Ontario Universities said at least ten universities are projecting deficits this year of a combined $175 million.
News outlets in Canada reported on February 12 that the Ontario government is likely to pledge financial support to help shore up post-secondary institutions. The Ontario government had commissioned a Blue Ribbon panel in 2023 and the panel had indicated, prior to the federal government changes, that the provincial government should provide more financial support.
At the other end of the spectrum, Alberta is expected to gain more than 36,000 allotments, followed by Quebec with 29,000.
Nova Scotia, British Columbia and New Brunswick are also expected to decline, while the remaining provinces are predicted to have a gain or essentially remain the same.
Few expect Canada to actually reach its application cap in 2024 as all provinces and institutions are scrambling to meet new requirements the federal government announced. The additional level of attestations needed at the provincial level have paused application processing across the country. As well, it is not clear if the destinations poised for growth have the capacity to accept the students in the short term.
“One of the most important things to clarify with Canada’s new policies is that the government has capped the number of new applications it will process in 2024, not the number of approvals. For affected study levels— every study level except K-12, master’s, and doctoral—Canada processed 669,000 applications in 2023. This means that the new cap could reduce application totals by as little as 9% in 2024,” says Meti Basiri, Co-Founder & CEO, ApplyBoard.
The data provided by ApplyBoard is calculated using 2023 IRCC data and Statistics Canada Q4 population data, and they are quick to point out that there are assumptions in the data.
The Canadian government has indicated they expect to approve 360,000 applications in 2024, which would represent an approval rate of nearly 60 per cent of the 606,250 new study permit applications.
The shift in visa allocations may also have an impact on the source countries. For instance, if Quebec has an additional 29,000 applications, it may significantly increase recruitment from French-speaking destinations. Some institutions may also focus more on masters and doctoral students as those are not affected by the visa changes.
