Last month, I wrote the piece “7 Predictions for the Future of Canadian Post-Secondary.” Since then, significant developments have unfolded, prompting an update on this shifting landscape.
Initially, the post-secondary public response after Minister Miller’s September 18th policy changes was notably slow. Only a few leaders publicly voiced concerns, while sector associations primarily acted as spokespersons. Several op-eds and open letters urged Minister Marc Miller and the federal government to reconsider their policies, yet Minister Miller has remained resolute. Despite engaging with many representatives to date, he shows no signs of reversing his stance.
On October 24th, the federal government took additional steps by announcing a reduction in permanent resident targets—from 500,000 to 395,000 for 2025, with further decreases planned for subsequent years. While these reductions don’t directly target international student policies, they send a clear message to the international community that Canada is less open.
Provincial government responses have been muted and strangely not directed at international student policy. Alberta’s premier criticized the federal reductions in immigration targets as insufficient given the province’s rapid population growth. Ontario’s premier announced that all medical training seats will be reserved for Ontario residents, and Quebec introduced legislation to limit international student enrollment in the province. Although these actions indicate awareness, most provinces have yet to openly address the broader implications for the future of their post-secondary systems.
The financial impact on institutions is becoming increasingly clear, and perhaps the biggest clue to date about just how serious the situation is, came in the news just yesterday. The president of Fanshawe College stated that an outside consulting firm has been hired to conduct an independent review, and the Ontario government is funding it. In my experience, when a government pays for a consulting contract, they also get to direct the project, so I see this as significant.
Other news is starting to emerge. For example, Seneca Polytechnic recently announced the temporary closure of its Markham campus. Confederation College in Thunder Bay reported a 39% drop in international enrollments, describing this period as “very challenging,” with millions in anticipated revenue loss. Similarly, the University of Prince Edward Island experienced a fifty percent reduction in international first-year enrollments, leading to a $3 million loss. Ontario universities project nearly $1 billion in financial losses over the next two years.
News from British Columbia, the province with the second-largest dependence on international enrollment, has been limited—perhaps due to the recent election period. However, there has been some news coverage hinting at what is at stake. Langara College warned in July about the potential for drastic cuts in enrollment, and Selkirk College recently indicated they may be forced to reevaluate programming.
In some respects, it’s not surprising that there hasn’t been a great deal in the media. The seriousness of the situation can’t be overstated and there is a lot to figure out. Conversations between provincial ministries and institutions will be intense, urgent, and should be confidential. Discussions around potential program closures and layoffs should happen behind the scenes out of respect for those potentially impacted. Given the unionized nature of these institutions, any scenarios impacting employees will require careful consideration of union agreements, adding complexity to future planning.
Business and industry associations have also started to voice dissatisfaction with the federal policy changes, highlighting growing concern about the availability of workers. However, the biggest sign that there is growing concern outside of the immediate post-secondary sector may be that this week, the Standing Committee on Citizenship and Immigration (CIMM) launched a study on Minister Miller’s recent policy shifts, including the international student cap, financial requirements, and regulatory amendments. This decision is an indication of mounting pressure on the federal government.
While Minister Miller remains firm, some minor adjustments to the Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) may be forthcoming. However, expectations of a substantial policy reversal are low, even with the upcoming Canadian Bureau for International Education (CBIE) conference providing an opportunity for the minister to address these changes.
To adapt, many institutions are modifying program offerings to better align with PGWP restrictions, introducing new PGWP-eligible programs, and facing difficult budget decisions. Deficits loom, and program cuts and service reductions are anticipated. In response to these challenges, institutions are taking steps to bolster their viability. Many are actively working to enhance domestic recruitment and engaging in scenario planning to navigate the uncertainties ahead.
The impact of the federal policy on Canada’s reputation as a prime destination for international students has been significant, particularly in key markets like India. This reputational challenge has deepened with a recent warning from a former Indian High Commissioner, advising parents against sending their children to Canada for studies.
What’s Ahead?
Developments to date largely align with my earlier predictions. The changes in federal immigration policies are exerting significant pressure on institutions nationwide. The brand damage is already serious, and any return to growth is likely years away. Emerging financial instability is already beginning to drive program cuts and campus closures, especially for institutions that are heavily reliant on international students.
Unfortunately, this cycle is just beginning. I expect that the full impact on institutions will take two or three years to fully materialize. The metaphor that comes to mind is a slow-moving train wreck, as current students move through their studies and graduate without their seats being filled by new international students. The impact will not happen all at once or be uniform across the sector; some provinces and institutions will be less affected, but most will feel some pain. It is already clear that the existing model for many institutions is unsustainable, and to regain stability, they will have to undergo significant downsizing and redesign processes. There will be some that can’t survive without provincial intervention and/or significant restructuring.
Despite the best efforts of post-secondary presidents, leadership teams, and boards, what the final picture ends up looking like will depend on provincial government decisions. Even if they intervene with significant funding (which is unlikely), there is no avoiding the fact that without international students, there is just no need for the current size and capacity of the system. A significant adjustment of capacity is inevitable.
The next year will be a significant test of not only institutional leadership but also provincial governments. Beyond the immediate pressure to stabilize the sector, meaningful, long-term solutions will require the provinces to engage stakeholders, consult educational experts, coordinate efforts, and apply strategic thinking. As I stated four weeks ago, this crisis presents an opportunity for transformation. Canadian post-secondary education can emerge stronger and more resilient. Adapting to these challenges through collaboration is essential to ensure a sustainable future.
Note: I write from the perspective of a consultant who is currently engaged with clients that are dealing with the current reality and planning for an uncertain future. I spent thirty-four years in higher education and in my opinion there has never been a more critical time. The ideas shared here are my own, not intended to provoke, but to encourage thoughtful dialogue.
