The government should not cap international student numbers as it risks over-shooting its Net Overseas Migration (NOM) target, leading to the creation of a roller-coaster NOM, according to a paper released by the ANU Migration Hub, Understanding Australian Migration 2024 by Emeritus Professor of Demography, Peter McDonald.
Despite the spike in NOM in 2022-23 to 538,000, McDonald argues that the NOM will fall without caps, once the COVID backlog of enrolments subsides and the measures the government is taking to address ‘visa hoppers’ take effect. The paper also contends that the 2022-23 NOM would have been a much more reasonable number if Labor had terminated the 408 temporary employment visa subclass much earlier than it did, with 192,000 holders of a student or graduate visa moving to a 408 visa in 2022-23.
On “visa hopping” and students, McDonald instead suggests a system that limits graduating students to temporary visas of only a graduate visa or another student visa for postgraduate study. He also advocates for greater assistance by governments for student graduates to find employment commensurate with their skill level.
Although not a focus of the paper, a recommendation to deal with “dodgy educational institutions that exploit international students” is made to support the assertion that capping numbers attending “respectable” universities is unnecessary and will lead to job losses, course cancellations and a reduction in the level of university research.
McDonald recommends the policy direction should be:
- Maintain the permanent migration program at its 18-year average level.
- Severely curtail visa hopping onshore, including by working holiday makers.
- Close dodgy educational institutions.
- Do not cap international student numbers.
- Temporary skilled visas should be encouraged
- ABS must divide the Estimated Resident Population between its permanent and temporary components.
The report is available on the ANU website.
