International student caps should not be introduced, says respected higher education expert Professor Andrew Norton, warning that education providers will close, and thousands of people will lose their jobs if the government continues its current path. In a paper released today, International students: A government changes its mind, Norton also argues that Australia’s reputation will be harmed by mistreating those who are hoping to study in Australia.
In advance of the Senate Committee hearing tomorrow (6 August) on the Education Services for Overseas Students Amendment (Quality and Integrity) Bill 2024, Norton provides readers with a masterclass in the recent policy changes impacting the international education sector and the factors behind the government’s decisions. He says that the Albanese government has “radically reversed” its initial support for international education over the last year, inflicting “blow after blow on the international education industry” since October 2023.
The reasons for the government changing its mind about reviving international education are discussed by Norton, including issues with genuine students, English language, and the new policy objective of reducing Australia’s population. He covers the nine significant “demand-side” migration policy changes that have been made since October 2023, noting that most of these changes have essentially made it more difficult and costly to obtain a student visa.
Norton believes that the measures already taken by government to reduce the number of current and former international students in Australia are likely enough to achieve its desired population moderation.
On the “supply-side” policies that will reduce international student numbers, he says that the ESOS amendment bill appears to have been rushed. Issues with enrolment caps, including defining ‘enrolment’ and administering caps for both government and education providers are detailed at length, something that also concerns TKN (Managing enrolment caps through eCoEs doomed to fail). Linking caps with Australia’s skills needs is something that Norton has already been critical of, and he reiterates that international students should take courses that interest them and provide opportunities for employment in their home countries.
The consequences of these policy changes are also analysed for vocational education and higher education. For the VET sector, Norton says “things look bad”, with offshore demand already weak prior to the doubling of the visa application fee; although in good news/bad news, enrolment caps may not make much difference to VET providers, given the impact of migration policy changes.
For higher education, the available sector-wide data indicating continued high applications/enrolments, masks the individual impact of migration policy changes. The full impact of caps will also take time to be realised because of the pipeline effect, with caps only applying to new students in 2025.
Despite border closures in 2020-21, the sector was relatively resilient and there was not a high number of provider closures, which Norton attributes, in part, to the knowledge that border closures were temporary. However, with no end date for migration restrictions and enrolment cap uncertainty, he notes that planning for the future is very difficult.
In his conclusion, Norton acknowledges that some of the migration policy changes will address issues that are widely known across the sector, such as student poverty and English language ability. However, he is critical of the government repurposing the visa risk rating classifications for prioritisation purposes and of visa application fees being set as a deterrent, rather than reflecting reasonable costs of visa processing.
On caps, he restates his concerns about definitions and management of enrolments, the need for real-time data, and that government agencies have had to go public about their own issues with the bill due to what appears to be a lack of consultation. He also says it is unrealistic that international students will take courses focused on Australia’s skills needs, rather than those that will meet their own career needs.
Norton argues that by continuing its current trajectory, the government will cause much more damage than is necessary to achieve policy objectives. He concludes with “International education policy needs a period of pause and reflection, not the current poorly thought through plan to cap international student numbers”. This author hopes the government is listening but fears it is not.
TKN commends as essential reading “International students: A government changes its mind”, ANU Migration Hub Insights No. 24/3.
Andrew Norton is Professor in the Practice of Higher Education Policy, POLIS: The Centre for Social Policy Research, The Australian National University.
