Studymove, a consultancy specialising in International Education Data, has released a key data update and optimism is the key message.
Managing Director of Studymove, Keri Ramirez, says “the past six to seven months have been extraordinary in terms of optimism in the international student sector, with universities reconnecting with international applicants and seeing the return of international students.”
“The number of international student commencements in higher education has skyrocketed, with a 44% increase compared to last year and 64% more than 2021, showing an impressive rebound in the sector.” He says.
In fact, when looking at the YTD May numbers for Higher Education, the peak of commencers was in 2019, where there were 96,760. This slowed through the covid period, and now, in 2023, the YTD May numbers have been the best on record at 105,409.
Geographically and against May YTD 2022, MENA is up 16 per cent, North Asia 6 per cent, and Southeast Asia 27 per cent. The America’s declined by 12 per cent, mainly on the back of South America, while the headline, which comes as no surprise, is South Asia recording a growth rate of 105 per cent.
Interestingly, growth from South Asian countries is placing pressure on more traditional top 10 countries, such as Indonesia and South Korea, which have not kept pace.
Of the two majors, China and India, there has also been a shift in the level of study. China in 2019 was 51 per cent PG/49 per cent UG. In 2023 it is now 64 per cent PG/ 36 per cent UG. India in 2019 was 73 per cent PG/27 per cent UG, in 2023 it has shifted to 62 per cent PG/38 per cent UG.
Commencements v Enrolments
While Ramirez points out that all is looking sunny on the commencement side of the ledger, there will still be time for these students to flow through the system to bolster enrolments (the total student body). In fact, the presented Studymove data, points out enrolments peaked in 2019 at 360, 436 and are currently at 331,794. This is 8 per cent less than in 2019, up on 2022 (16 per cent), and 2021 (3 per cent).
He says “while the trajectory of growth is promising, there’s a lag in revenue due to a slower recovery in total international student enrolments (commencing and continuing). It may not be until 2024 when we will see the number of total enrolments return to pre-pandemic levels.”
This catch-up period sees institutional revenues gained from the whole student body still down and catching up to 2019 – not considering pricing changes (rises and scholarships) from 2019 to 2023.
Never fear, with commencements as strong as they are it won’t be long until the enrolment data surpasses 2019 levels.
Looking to the Future – A boom coming?
Student visa lodgements are a key indicator of what may be coming down the pike in terms of students on the ground. If looking at this solely, we are indeed looking at the continued growth of a significant order.
Visa lodgement in the first half of the year (January through June) in 2019 was 115,927. This dipped as one would expect through the Covid period. The same period in 2022 recorded 111,134 visa lodgements, while in 2023, we have hit historical highs of 166,524 – this is 44 per cent higher than in 2019, with 80 per cent of these lodgements being offshore.
Assuming grant rates remain somewhat similar, this means we can expect many more international students over the next 12 to 18 months.
A video that outlines the update can be seen here.
