The massive visa changes that sent waves of shock through the Canadian post-secondary system are now being replaced by fear of the anticipated tsunami of financial and student services challenges.
To reign in rapidly growing international student numbers and to protect students from bad experiences at some private institutions, the Canadian federal government announced sweeping changes to the visa system last Monday. The self-described “blunt” changes will place two-year caps on new permits for international students, eliminate postgrad work permits starting in September for students in private college partnership programs, add more red tape with the addition of a provincial attestation requirement to the approval of study permits, and eliminate open work permits for spouses of international students.
Those in the higher education industry spent much of the past week trying to clarify the details, such as how many students each province can admit and how they will designate which institution can recruit to that cap. It is expected the 35 percent decrease in study permits for 2024 will send a chill through the international market and cause confusion and frustration for students.
“Immediate impacts are anticipated, particularly in India,” said Antonio Aragorn, VP of Business Development at Bayswater Canada. “The perception of Canada as less welcoming may generate disappointment and prompt a shift in focus.”
The confusion in Canada is expected to potentially open opportunities for other regions, such as Australia and New Zealand, to capitalize.
“This presents a strategic chance for Australia to gain market share wisely,” said Aragorn, who previously worked at ApplyBoard. “The recent measures affecting international students echo past actions taken by other destinations closing their borders during the pandemic.”
Ontario is anticipated to be particularly hard hit by the changes as the private public partnerships were almost entirely in the country’s largest province.
“The federal government’s unilateral decision to immediately cap international student visa permits, and suspend applications until a provincial attestation process is in place, has put the futures of international university applicants on hold,” said Steve Orsini, President and CEO, Council of Ontario Universities. “These students are now facing months of stress and uncertainty.”
Ontario College’s issued a news release on Friday last week requesting that the Federal Government exempt students in high-demand programs needed by the workforce, delay the required attestation, and to treat post-post-graduate credentials the same way it treats the post-graduate credentials at universities.
“The federal government’s changes are creating havoc for students NOW,” the release read.
The Ontario government currently provides the lowest funding of any province to its post-secondary institutes. A recent blue-ribbon report commissioned by the government indicated that the risk of being dependent upon international revenue was excessive, and the province needed to consider lifting domestic tuition freezes and providing more funding. The provincial government did indicate this week they would be continuing to look at the recommendations in the report.
Not surprisingly, private providers are also indicating the changes are being rushed and are too extreme. One large private provider in Ontario, who requested anonymity while they are still working with the government, indicated that the entire system is being thrown into disarray instead of eliminating the poor-quality and non-compliant providers. The private provider indicated they alone would be looking at a $20 million write-off of brand-new infrastructure and the cancellation of another $30 million that was planned in 2024. They also anticipate that they could be forced to cut hundreds of jobs over the next couple of years and tens of millions of annual taxes and rent for landlords will also be lost. They said many unionized jobs at public institutions will also need to be cut as they were funded by surpluses from their private partners.
Ontario’s loss has the potential to be other province’s gain. Other provinces are anticipating they may actually see a slight uptick in visa allocation as a result of so many being removed from the private-public partnerships that are predominantly in Toronto. However, if the provincial attestations slow down study permits, there is fear that student numbers could drop across all regions of Canada. With the vast majority of students coming from India to Canadian colleges, it is also anticipated the loss of open work permits for spouses, may further reduce demand from the key Indian market.
“While many recruitment agencies grapple with the anticipated loss of business, particularly in volume marketing, this is a moment to think beyond the conventional,” said Aragon. “Exploring regions like the Prairies or Atlantic Canada allows agencies to diversify their portfolios.”
Criticism for the federal government’s decision is also coming from outside the higher education system. Randall Bartlette, Desjardins senior of Canadian economics, stated in the National Post that the impact of the changes could precipitate a predicted recession in 2024. Record numbers of newcomers have pushed Canada’s population growth rate to 3.2 per cent, one of the highest in the world. While the surge has been attributed to driving up housing costs, it has also boosted the labour market. Without the influx of temporary residents, it is anticipated real gross domestic product would fall considerably below current forecasts and stall the economy.
