Australia’s Learning Abroad sector appears to have reached a recovery ceiling, with new CISaustralia research showing outbound participation has recovered substantially from COVID but is now largely flatlining.
The findings from the 2026 Learning Abroad Industry Survey, now in its ninth edition, point to a sector where the headline numbers tell only part of the story. Behind the overall recovery sits a significant concentration of activity among a relatively small number of universities, alongside a much larger group where outbound participation remains limited.
According to CISaustralia, four Australian universities are expected to account for around half of all Learning Abroad enrolments in 2026, with three universities each reporting more than 6,000 students going abroad.
At the other end of the scale, 20 universities, representing half of those surveyed, are expected to account for just 3,500 students, or around 8% of total outbound university Learning Abroad enrolments.
That gap is perhaps one of the most striking findings in the survey.
CISaustralia describes the four high-performing universities as both a sector success story and a potential vulnerability. If such a large proportion of outbound activity sits with a handful of institutions, any change in their funding, staffing or institutional priorities could have an outsized impact on the national picture.
But there is another question worth asking.
If some universities are sending thousands of students abroad while others are sending comparatively few, the issue may not simply be student demand. It may also be what universities are doing to make Learning Abroad visible, accessible and achievable.
And that matters because the survey suggests the sector is no longer experiencing the kind of post-pandemic rebound it might once have expected.
CISaustralia estimates Learning Abroad enrolments have recovered around 75% since COVID, but projects an 8.7% decline from 2025 to 2026, followed by broadly similar enrolment levels in 2027.
In other words, recovery appears to have stalled.
Cost is now the biggest barrier
The most significant barrier identified by universities is hardly surprising: the cost of living.
Some 73% identified increased cost of living as a major challenge for Learning Abroad participation. Lack of awareness across institutions and insufficient funding or scholarships were each identified by 44%, while global conflicts were cited by 38%.
The addition of cost of living and global conflict as new indicators in the survey is telling.
For students, going abroad is competing with a much more immediate set of financial pressures. A semester or short-term program may be academically attractive, but airfare, accommodation, food and other travel costs can make the decision considerably harder.
That puts the spotlight back on funding.
The survey found 77% of universities provide some form of central funding or scholarships for Learning Abroad, with 55% providing between $500 and $3,000 per student.
That is positive, but it also raises a practical question: how far does that funding go toward the actual cost of participating?
If cost is the biggest barrier, a scholarship that covers a relatively small proportion of the overall trip may help, but it is unlikely to fundamentally change the decision for every student.
The staffing equation is becoming harder
There is also a clear resource story running through the survey.
Eighty-seven percent of universities said they do not expect to employ any new Learning Abroad staff over the next 12 months. Meanwhile, 63% reported having between one and three dedicated Learning Abroad FTE staff.
For teams responsible for engaging thousands, or tens of thousands, of students, that is a significant constraint.
The challenge is particularly interesting because CISaustralia’s data suggests universities increasingly recognise Learning Abroad as strategically important. More than half now have Learning Abroad clearly articulated in their overarching institutional strategy, up from 36% in 2025.
The strategic language is improving. The resourcing does not appear to be keeping pace.
That disconnect may become increasingly important.
Putting Learning Abroad into a strategic plan is one thing. Giving the people responsible for delivering it enough resources, visibility and institutional support to actually grow participation is another.
The academic connection remains strong
One area where Learning Abroad appears firmly embedded is academic engagement.
Eighty-seven per cent of universities expect between 76% and 100% of their Learning Abroad participants in 2026 to receive academic credit.
Short-term faculty-led study tours remain the dominant program model, with 81% identifying them as the most popular form of Learning Abroad programming.
But there is an interesting contradiction here.
Universities also reported that short-term faculty-led study tours were among the least efficient Learning Abroad programs to deliver.
That raises a broader question about the sustainability of the model. The program students want may not necessarily be the program universities find easiest or most efficient to deliver.
It may be one reason the sector needs to keep looking beyond the traditional study tour model and consider how Learning Abroad can be delivered at greater scale without simply adding more pressure to already stretched teams.
Europe remains the favourite, while China returns
Geographically, Europe is projected to be the leading region for Learning Abroad in 2027, with CISaustralia forecasting a 14% increase from 2026.
England, Japan, Korea and Canada are identified as the most popular individual destinations.
There are also some interesting movements beneath those headline destinations.
China is projected to record 10% growth in 2027, its first projected increase since COVID. Scandinavia and Scotland are also expected to grow.
Meanwhile, Japan is projected to decline by 10%, the Netherlands by 22%, and the USA is expected to continue its year-on-year downward trend, with a further 20% decline projected for 2027.
The China figure will be one to watch.
Australia’s broader relationship with China has changed considerably since the pre-COVID era, and an anticipated return to growth in outbound student mobility is another indication that the post-pandemic map of international education is still being redrawn.
The missing piece: what happens when students come home?
Perhaps the most interesting findings in the survey sit outside the traditional Learning Abroad metrics.
CISaustralia reports that 80% of universities have only a low to moderate understanding of the value of Learning Abroad as a domestic recruitment tool for Australian high school students.
Even more strikingly, 85% have a low to moderate understanding of its potential impact on student retention after students return.
The disconnect is growing. The gap in understanding around domestic recruitment increased by 8% compared with 2025, while the gap around retention increased by 15%.
This is where Learning Abroad starts to look less like a mobility activity and more like a broader institutional strategy.
If an overseas experience helps a university demonstrate its value proposition to prospective students, deepen student engagement and potentially support retention, then it is doing considerably more work than simply sending someone overseas for a few weeks.
The challenge is proving and communicating that value inside the institution.
And that may be where the next phase of Learning Abroad growth sits.
There is also an uncomfortable sustainability question
Around half of Australian universities still have no institutional environmental policy relating to student travel, according to the survey.
When universities with only limited or introductory policies are included, CISaustralia estimates 86% are doing little or nothing to reduce carbon emissions associated with travel.
That figure has not shifted since 2025.
It is an awkward finding for a sector that increasingly talks about sustainability across almost every other aspect of university operations.
International travel is inherently difficult to reconcile with emissions reduction. But that makes the absence of policy more notable, rather than less.
The issue is unlikely to disappear, as student demand for international experiences remains strong.
The bigger question
The CISaustralia survey paints a picture of a Learning Abroad sector that has recovered from the pandemic, but may now be running into the structural limits of the way it is organised and resourced.
Student demand remains. Academic engagement remains. Universities are increasingly putting Learning Abroad into their strategic plans.
But staffing is constrained, funding remains uneven, and a large proportion of participation is concentrated in a small number of universities.
That makes the next stage less about simply rebuilding the numbers and more about working out how Learning Abroad becomes part of the mainstream university proposition.
There is also a useful lesson here for the broader international education sector.
Australia has spent years talking about the importance of internationalising the student experience. Yet the outbound side of international education can still sit somewhere down the institutional priority list, particularly when budgets are tight and domestic or international recruitment is demanding attention.
The survey suggests that may be leaving value on the table.
The universities that have built strong Learning Abroad participation appear to have demonstrated that scale is possible. The question now is whether the rest of the sector can work out what is driving that participation and whether those lessons can be replicated.
The next chapter of Learning Abroad may therefore be less about convincing students to go abroad and more about convincing universities that outbound mobility is worth investing in.
Vist CISaustralia for more information.
