As if we didn’t know, America is divided. Trump’s victory in the recent Presidential election may have surprised many, but his supporters and over half of the electoral college are behind him.
One group that doesn’t appear to be is American college students, or at least a subset who, in the week post the election, have been busy exploring study abroad options in record numbers.
According to leading European study choice platform Study.eu, it has seen an unprecedented surge of interest from U.S. students seeking higher education in Europe, which may significantly affect U.S. domestic enrolment in 2025 and beyond.
According to study.eu there are a number of key themes:
Strong surge in post-election student interest, mostly from Swing states
The day following the presidential election, nearly four times the average number of U.S. prospective students looked into European universities and degree programmes on study choice platform Study.eu. Even a week after the election, interest remains ca. 45% higher than before. “Elections or political decisions often lead to short-lived spikes in regional user interest. But so far, we’ve seen nothing near this magnitude,” comments Study.eu CEO Gerrit Bruno Blöss. “Surges of around 20 to 30% are common, but they usually flatten down within a few days.” In 2022, the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v Wade had also led to a significant rise in students looking at international education options (The Hill).
Over the week following the election, total platform traffic from the U.S. was more than twice the usual (+112%). The increase was most significant in the seven swing states (+174%) and other Republican-voting states (+124%).
Student interest was split evenly between undergraduate and graduate education. Considering that ca. 38% of Americans have a Bachelor’s degree, but only 14% progress to a Master (Census Bureau 2023), this implies that U.S. students interested in graduate school are more likely to seek options abroad.
It’s also lower tuition fees – sometimes less than $5,000 per year
The most popular European destinations for Americans are Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, and France. Aside from political convictions, tuition fees are another major factor to consider studying in Europe: In Germany, English-taught Bachelors and Masters at public universities are mostly tuition-free, while in France, Italy or Spain, they often cost less than $5,000 per year in fees – even at leading universities. And for students preferring a U.S. accredited degree, many American universities operate campuses or semi-separate universities in cities like Paris, Rome, Prague, or Vienna.
Will U.S. universities actually see a decline in 2025 enrolments?
The data collected by Study.eu and others (Financial Times) suggests that American universities may experience a decline in enrolments in fall 2025 and thereafter. Sector experts have also speculated to which extent a second Trump presidency would once more adversely affect international enrolments; although this effect may be smaller than many expected, and seen predominantly among students from Western Europe and Latin America, as a recent survey by QS suggests.
It remains hard to predict to which extent U.S. students will ultimately leave the country. Actual application numbers will likely provide a good indication: The first relevant deadlines are mid-January 2025 for popular destinations Sweden and Finland, and 29 January 2025 for undergraduate applications to UK universities – for which official statistics are expected already around mid-February (UCAS). For most other European countries, applications can be submitted between March and June for a start in fall 2025. “We’re already seeing universities, especially in the UK, increasing their efforts to attract American students for the next intake,” comments Blöss. “The actual policy decisions of the incoming Trump administration will determine how many American students ultimately choose to study abroad.”
Further afield, the study choice platform, Studyportals has also been carefully monitoring the post-election increase in US student enquiries. CEO of Studyportals Edwin van Rest says “Australia as a destination for US students had a nice 467% growth. Not as good as Canada (+826%) or Ireland (+1299%), but higher than the average of 403%.”
van Rest expands “Student demand on Studyportals in multiple studies has been confirmed to correlate closely to future enrolment. The magnitude is hard to predict at this stage. The spike is huge but we yet have to see to what extent the interest persists over time, only then we can predict the enrolment impact.
“In the previous Trump Presidency, we have seen similar trends, that intensified in particular around some of the controversial executive orders. However, the magnitude of this spike we had not seen before.
“It would be a good thing for the world if more US students would build ties to other countries, international education would become more symmetrical, and our world a more understanding, tolerant and united place. Our US users that do make the leap are very satisfied about their experience, their personal development and the value-for-money they can find on Higher Education abroad. Our university partners that we have in 118 countries are I think unanimously seeking to welcome more US students in their communities.” He says.
It will indeed be interesting to see if this short-term spike in enquiries develops into a larger number of US students studying abroad in 2025.
