Treasurer Dr Jim Chalmers’ speech to the Australian Business Economists last Thursday caught my attention, not least because Treasury now expects productivity to take closer to five years, rather than two, to return to trend.
But it was two other references, made almost in passing, that leapt out at me.
On migration, the Treasurer noted that net overseas migration (NOM) is now 45 per cent below its peak. However, he flagged that Treasury expects the decline to be more modest over the forecast period, largely due to fewer people leaving than expected.
What this will mean for the international education sector in May’s Budget is yet to be seen, but the mention of NOM is important. For a sector that has been buffeted by constant changes to migration and visa settings, it suggests that the impact of these changes has not been what policymakers expected (or hoped).
On education, the single reference by the Treasurer that the Government was investing in human capital through “Free TAFE, the universities accord and fairer schools funding”. He also referenced skills as one of the Government’s five pillars of its productivity agenda, but without further details.
“What comes next will have a sharper focus on unlocking productive investment, better regulation, even faster approvals, more open trade, skills, and ensuring Australia captures the upsides of AI,” Chalmers said.
The question as we head into the May Budget is what these comments signal for an international education sector that has been adjusting to near-constant changes in migration and visa settings.
