Almost a week since details were released, the TAFE sector’s peak body, TAFE Directors Australia (TDA), has responded publicly to the Government’s plans to limit new international student commencements, with TDA CEO, Jenny Dodd, stating that “while not allowing for growth, there is some good news for TAFEs in this National Planning Level [NPL] change”.
The good news, according to Dodd, is that public providers, including TAFEs, will have 2025 VET allocations closely aligned to their 2023 new commencement levels. This is following the Government announcement that around 95,000 new VET international student commencements in 2025.
However, it’s unlikely that all TAFEs will agree with TDA’s ‘good news’ characterisation.
Queensland and the Northern Territory were the only States/Territories to grow international VET commencement numbers in 2023, in comparison to 2019 (pre-COVID), according to Department of Education commencement data. Queensland’s international commencements are up seven per cent in 2023, from 2019, and the NT is up 46 per cent (albeit of a much smaller base).
In contrast, Victoria’s 2023 international commencements declined by 53 per cent in comparison to 2019. At this time, Victoria was the largest State for international VET commencements in Australia. Koala understands from sources in the sector that the impact of Government policy decisions (pre-Ministerial Direction 107) is largely to blame for this decline, rather than lack of student demand.
In the other two large States, NSW and Western Australia, international commencements declined 33 per cent and 23 per cent respectively, when comparing 2019 and 2023 data. South Australia’s 2023 commencements are almost on par with 2019. The ACT, which exceeded SA’s commencements in 2019, has declined by 40 per cent in 2023 and Tasmania is down by 25 per cent.
If Queensland and the NT are the only State and Territory in 2023 to surpass 2019 numbers, it’s hard to imagine that individual TAFEs will agree with TDA’s characterisation that pegging new overseas student commencement (NOSC) levels at 2023 levels is ‘good news’.
Harmonised tertiary education sector
The focus of Dodd’s concern is the impact NPL might have on the harmonisation of the tertiary education sector, as outlined in the Australian Universities Accord. (Noting that Dodd is the only representative of the VET sector on the Universities Accord implementation committee).
In her column, Dodd expresses concern that pathways between TAFEs and universities may become less attractive for universities, as universities may prioritise students enrolling for a full degree rather than granting credit to a TAFE graduate into the latter stages of a degree. However, some universities may be incentivised to increase their partnerships with TAFEs, if they are having difficulty filling their caps.
Either way, TDA is now advocating for TAFE-University pathways to be added to the list of exemptions announced by the Government last week.
NCVER data
In other VET-related news, as Koala previously reflected, the devil is in the detail when it comes to the Government’s plans to impose NOSC levels. In a detail that Koala previously missed, the announcement also says that “For VET providers whose international students accounted for less than 80 per cent of the provider’s total count of students in 2023 (based on National Centre for Vocational Education Research [NCVER] calendar year individual student data), a provider will be able to maintain new overseas student commencements in 2025 at approximately 2024 levels”.
NCVER data for 2023 will not be released until sometime this month, which may explain why the letter sent to VET providers from the Department of Employment and Workplace Relations (DEWR), last week indicated that NSOC allocations would not be provided until after the legislation passes.
In contrast to TDA, the Independent Tertiary Education Council Australia (ITECA), has been far more immediate and critical of the Government’s announcement. ITECA CEO, Troy William’s latest criticism has been levelled at this NCVER detail, asking “why wasn’t this communicated earlier to the international skills training sector”.
You would also be forgiven for being confused by terrible wording in the DEWR announcement, with it appearing to contradict itself: “a provider will be able to maintain new overseas student commencements in 2025 at approximately 2024 levels” and “public providers, including TAFEs, will have 2025 VET allocations closely aligned to 2023 new commencement levels for those providers”. The Koala is assured that the second statement trumps the first, where applicable.
