In late 2023 the government released a comprehensive Migration Strategy which included a number of specific reforms to international education. Prior to the work on the new Migration Strategy, former Victorian Police Commissioner, Christine Nixon, had been engaged to undertake a Rapid Review into Exploitation of Australia’s Visa System.
Collectively both documents articulated changes to international education which included:
- strengthening integrity in visa processing through the introduction of two new Ministerial Directions (106 and 107)[1], and a related new Genuine Student test. Confusingly the second Direction (107) was issued first and has dominated headlines since even though both are having an impact
- strengthening requirements for international education providers, and
- restricting onshore visa hopping that undermines system integrity and drives ‘permanent temporariness’.
Subsequent community concerns about the rising cost of living and housing affordability issues have seen a political consensus reached by both major parties that Australia has too many migrants and needs to reduce the number of international students through the introduction of limits on the number of new students providers can enrol from 2025.
Against this backdrop we have legislation before the parliament, currently being examined by a Senate Committee, to introduce a raft of changes to the sector including the introduction of caps on new international students in VET and higher education.
While it is the caps that are understandably the focus of much attention in the sector at present, there are some other changes which warrant consideration.
Integrity
With the government focussed on strengthening integrity in the private VET sector, legislation was passed earlier this year which was described as “empower(ing) the Australian Skills Quality Authority (ASQA) to take decisive action against the minority of RTOs that use their operations as a veil of legitimacy for fraudulent activity, or to circumvent regulatory requirements.”
Last month it was reported that ASQA had used these new powers to close 150 “ghost colleges”. A report detailing the providers involved was available on the training.gov.au website, but is now unavailable. My analysis of the providers on that list (with supposed integrity issues) identified that only 13 had CRICOS approval to deliver to international students and even amongst the 13 there were some highly regarded providers who had simply changed the focus of their business from VET to higher education – not because of fraudulent activities or circumventing regulatory requirements… (Others on the list included government and Catholic schools, community colleges, industry associations, and others who simply no longer wanted to run an RTO).
In a subsequent exclusive with The PIE News, ASQA explained that they had taken regulatory action to investigate “serious matters” – not against the 150 supposed ghost colleges – but in the form of:
- ‘surprise audits’ of 36 CRICOS providers in one week – which appears to be a continuation of a longer-term pattern of audits commenced in October 2023 and running initially through until June 2024, leading to 103 sanction decisions against 68 providers (of which just 33 had CRICOS approval), and
- the investigation of “serious matters” at another 145 providers – with no details on how many of these providers have CRICOS approval…
So ASQA has been auditing CRICOS providers and investigating serious matters – but it hasn’t closed 150 ghost colleges.
Meanwhile, based on the data released on Friday on the proposed student caps for VET and higher education providers, it appears that many, or perhaps all, of the providers currently under investigation for serious matters are likely to have a student cap for 2025.
That can’t be confirmed, because the names of providers under investigation are confidential. But given the fact that providers which have been issued with notices of cancellation (and are in the AAT appealing these decisions) have been given student caps it is reasonable to assume that those still under investigation have also been given caps.[2]
Caps
And so to the caps themselves…
Based on projected 2024 enrolments many universities have seen enrolment growth (in some cases significant growth) from their 2023 figures, following the introduction of the two Ministerial Directions. These universities tend to be members of the Group of Eight and the ATN network.
Other universities, and particularly some regional universities, have seen significant falls in their enrolments in 2024 as a result of delays in their visa processing (MD107) and more scrutiny on their prospective students (MD106).
Somewhat surprisingly the university sector appears to be almost united in its view that the removal of MD107 will on its own be of significant benefit and that those which have experienced a reduction in enrolments this year will quickly bounce back when MD107 is revoked. Without changes to the accompanying Ministerial Direction (106) I think many are likely to continue to find life difficult.
The impact of the proposed caps on the rest of the higher education sector is more difficult to calculate because of anomalies in the way caps have been developed for both dual sector providers and university pathways providers (I’ll have more to say on that later in the week).
And finally there are the providers who will be impacted most by the caps – private VET providers specialising in international education. Because most VET programs only run for 12 months, their caps will soon become their total stock of students – and some have very, very low caps. Not because of poor quality, not because of integrity issues; simply because of the way the caps have been calculated.
Counterintuitively I am told that some providers which have received relatively good caps for 2025 currently have higher levels of onshore international student recruitment (which superficially appears to be related to the student visa hopping the government was intending to crack down on).
I cannot imagine that Ministers, when they see and understand the errors uncovered in recent analysis by myself and the Koala News’ Tracy Harris, will allow the caps to proceed as planned. I also suspect Senators examining the legislation will demand changes.
So caps will be introduced into the sector but we need a more robust mechanism for setting them than the one currently in use. And we need to ensure that in parallel there is a laser like focus on addressing the real integrity issues, not just quoting unsubstantiated claims of actions against large numbers of providers.
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[1] As the government noted at the time “the (first) Direction will be clear in setting the expectations of students who come to complete study in Australia. Those who do not meet those requirements will not be granted a student visa. The second Ministerial Direction will focus on the prioritisation of processing the visa caseload.”
2 The contrast with the approach in higher education is stark. One higher education provider is under sanction by TEQSA and there is a specific note in the documents provided by the Department of Education on student caps, that this provider will not be able to use their student cap while under sanction. No similar caveats are given for any VET providers (including the same provider TEQSA has sanctioned and which is now also subject to an ASQA cancellation decision). At this stage the provider sanctioned by TEQSA and ASQA will still be able, along with other cancelled VET providers, to enrol students in 2025 under their caps.
Claire Field is an independent consultant and the 2023 IEAA Award winner for Excellent in Professional Commentary Related to International Education
