Education was a key pillar of the 2025 budget handed down by Treasurer Jim Chalmers last night, with incentives being provided to Australians accessing early childhood, primary, TAFE and university education.
While international education and international students were absent from the Treasurer’s speech, the budget offers insights into the Government’s approach to the sector.
Net Overseas Migration
The budget forecasts that the decline in NOM will continue to ease over the forward estimates, with arrivals expected to continue to decline this financial year, before stabilising in 2025-26.
The 2025 budget forecasts the NOM to be 335,000 in 2024-25, 260,000 in 2025-26 and 225,000 in 2026-27, 2027-28 and 2028-29.
As a reminder, the mid-year budget in December 2023 projected that the NOM would be 250,000 in 2024-25, 255,000 in 2025-26 and 235,000 in 2026-27. In reality, the NOM in 2023-24 was well above the forecast at 446,000.
There was some hope within the international education sector that this budget would not be handed down, because with a budget comes the announcement about Net Overseas Migration (NOM). And and announcement about the NOM has the potential to put a greater spotlight on the already beleaguered sector in the lead up to the election.
International trade
The Economic Outlook in Budget Paper No.1 expects that growth in exports will moderate to 1 per cent in 2024-25, acknowledging that services exports growth has slowed “following the sharp rebound in education and tourism exports in recent years”.
Exports are forecast to grow by 2.5 per cent in both 2025–26 and 2026–27.
International Education Support program
The budget reallocates funding from the International Education Support program, achieving savings of $3million over two years from 2024-25. The savings will be redirected to other Government policy priorities.
Boosting Australia’s Economic Ties with India
The Government will provide $4.0 million to extend the Maitri Grants Program to support exchange and collaboration between Australian and Indian cultural, education, research and business communities. This is part of a $20.0million initiative over four years from 2025-26 to support increased economic engagement with India.
Portfolio Budget Statement – Education
For all the work of those engaged in international education in the Department of Education, there are only two performance measures and corresponding planned performance results in the Education Portfolio Budget Statement for Program 2.7, International Education Support:
| Performance measures | Planned performance results |
| Proportion of international students employed within 4 to 6 months of completing a degree24. | Target: 70% or higher. |
| Number of students enrolled in offshore education and training delivered by Australian providers. | Target: Increase from previous year. |
Portfolio Budget Statement – Foreign Affairs and Trade
There were no material changes announced in last night’s budget to Program 1.5, New Colombo Plan – Transforming Regional Relationships.
In good news/bad news for those involved in administering the New Colombo Plan, the Portfolio Budget Statement has no change in the 2024-25 appropriation of $50.933m for 2025-26, but the appropriation also remains unchanged in out years to 2028-29.
The PBS notes that the performance measure is currently being reconsidered.
| Performance measures | Planned performance results |
| Increased number and diversity of Australian university undergraduates with Indo-Pacific capability. | The performance measure is being reconsidered in line with program reform for the New Colombo Plan. An alternate or adjusted measure and/or targets for Program 1.5 will be provided in the Corporate Plan 2025-26. |
Portfolio Budget Statement – Australian Trade and Investment Commission
I’m not exactly sure when Austrade stopped being responsible for the marketing and promotion of Australian education and training internationally, a role that it was given in a machinery of government change in 2010. Something for a deeper dive on another day.
The Portfolio Budget Statement identifies that Austrade now only “assists clients to promotion Australian education to international students” and there is no related Program.
Portfolio Budget Statement – Home Affairs
There were no material changes announced in last night’s budget to Program 2.2, Visas. This will be a disappointment for advocates hoping for a decrease in the cost of student visas for short term visa holders, such as student exchange, study abroad and stand-alone ELICOS.
Response from Universities Australia
Regarding international education, Universities Australia called on the next federal government to grow Australia’s international education sector sustainably without reducing its size or value.
And in response to the broader budget, Universities Australia Chief Executive Officer, Luke Sheehy said, “Cost-of-living relief in the budget is a win for Australians when many are doing it tough, including university students, and we welcome the government’s support in this way.”
“But this budget is a missed opportunity to build on the government’s good, recent investments in the Universities Accord,” he said, while calling for the Job-Ready Graduates Package to go.
