The government is now almost certain to hand down a budget prior to the election being called. This is potentially bad news for International Education and here’s why.
The central tenant for the sector to be aware of is that the Net Overseas Migration (NOM) figure will need to be updated and as a consequence baked into the budget for the forward year. Something most around the sector hoped would not happen.
Having endured the most turbulent time in the history of the sector, most had hoped the budget would be avoided and some clear air sought post the election.
The updating of the NOM and having it in the budget creates problems.
The Pragmatism
The simple pragmatism of having this occur ensures that the government, whoever may come to power post the election, will be tied to a position, the budget position. Now that’s not saying a government with foresight and will power could not change positions, but it makes it more unlikely, at least for the short term. If Labor is returned, it is a continuation of their platform. If the opposition wins the day, it’s easy to say it’s Labor’s mess.
The Politics and the Perception
Rhetoric around migration, specifically level of migration and NOM appears to have died down over the past few weeks on both sides of the political divide. However, with the cost of living set to be a key election platform, a revised NOM baked into the budget, which acts as a lightning rod for debate, opening up the issue once again.
You can almost write the script. The government (Labor) will say this is an effective, considered measure that will bring down migration and the government has worked consistently to do just that. The opposition (Liberals and Nationals) will likely criticise it saying it doesn’t go far enough and it will be tougher.
This is a discussion that will play out publicly and won’t do anything to support the notion that we are a welcoming destination for potential students, partners and stakeholders in our source countries.
Phil Honeywood, CEO of the International Education Association of Australia says “Just when our beleaguered sector thought that we were off the political radar here we go again with another round of the blame game against international students. It’s just so easy for the political community to blame successive government inaction on housing and inflation policy and lay it all at the feet of overseas students who don’t have a voice and don’t get to vote.”
“Latest data indicates that offshore student visa applications are down 38 per cent. Renewed public debate about the NOM in the lead up to this election will only further exacerbate the view that Australia is anything but a welcoming study option,” he says.
Right he is.
