There are a number of famous sayings and statements about the dangers of hope. One of the most enduring warnings is in the story of Pandora. When Pandora opened a jar, despite being warned not to, all the world’s evils escaped from the jar, leaving only hope inside. Some academics have suggested that the reason hope was left in the jar was to make hope itself another curse to ensure humanity’s ongoing suffering.
This story of Pandora and hope might be a strong analogy for the release last week of the Total VET Activity 2025 by the National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER). Perhaps it is hope that is the sector’s tormentor-in-chief. Last week I had suggested that despite a number of factors that would probably drag growth lower, overall growth in student numbers of around 2.0% was feasible, meaning 5.23 million students in 2025 was likely.
Instead, we saw growth of just 1,585 students over the entire Australian skills training sector in 2025. That’s 0.031% growth in the middle of a national skills shortage.
The overall growth in student enrolments shows some interesting patterns, however, keeping in mind government prioritisation of investing in institutions at the expense of supporting student choice.
There has been a substantial contraction in students receiving government support to undertake skills training, with 76,265 fewer government-supported students in 2025 than in 2024 (-5.8%).
In 2025, the independent sector continued to be the choice of students and employers, with independent Registered Training Organisations supporting 91.1% of all student enrolments. In practical terms this means that for every student enrolment in the TAFE and university sectors, there are more than six in the independent sector.
At the same time, however, 86% of those students in the public skills system received government support in 2025 through subsidies or loans, while only 11% of all students at independent providers enjoyed such support.
This is what investing in institutions at the expense of students looks like.
Some uninformed commentators like to bloviate that independent providers only deliver short courses and that these are somehow of lesser value. Sure, there are a lot of people upskilling in mid-career and early career who would dispute that. As would those undertaking compulsory CPR, Confined Spaces, Manual Handling, Working with Vulnerable Children, Anaphylaxis Management and more. These commentators should also be aware that independent RTOs support the majority of students at every AQF qualification level including 76.5% of those at Diploma and above. Financial support discrimination against these students is not a serious or sustainable policy.
So, this ongoing poor policy design in the skills system is what enduring suffering looks like for students, business, and quality RTOs, let alone for communities and the economy.
Felix Pirie is the CEO of the Independent Tertiary Education Council of Australia (ITECA).
The Koala thanks Felix and ITECA for permission to publish this piece, which first appeared in the ITECA Newsletter (27/7/26).
