Since the start of 2024, Australia’s federal government has implemented a program of dramatic interventions into international education. These were ostensibly made in an effort to shrink the sector and with it the Net Overseas Migration (NOM) figures. The announcements from both major political parties about a planned second visa fee increase in 12 months suggests we will see more of the same post election.
What is increasingly clear, however, is that the measures taken to date are actually causing severe declines in those students least relevant to the NOM – short-stay ELICOS Only enrolments.
A high-level view of the full-calendar-year 2024 enrolment figures shows significant growth in the higher education and vocational sectors in 2024. Only ELICOS enrolments were lower in 2024 than in 2023 (10.5% lower).
As the average ELICOS enrolment is less than 20 weeks, many never count toward the NOM. To count, a student must stay in Australia for more than 12 months and very few ELICOS enrolments are 12 months long. So, the high-level view is that the only sector reduced by government measures aimed at reducing the NOM, is the one that makes the least and arguably no difference to the NOM.
However, the high-level view comes with the assumption that all sectors are performing the same ‘on average’ which is not at all the case. In a system as complex as international education, whole-of-industry averages offer no meaningful insight. Strategic, financial, and policy decisions should never be made on the superficial perspective offered by whole-of-industry averages. As a simple analogy, if ten cars are driving an average of 56kms per hour on a road with a 60km limit, there is no need for police or speed bumps, it sounds safe, ideal even. If that average comes from 9 cars driving 40kms per hour and one driving 200, not so much.
A more detailed analysis shows that the increases in HE and VET are mostly from continuing students and pathway students. These students started in Australia in the months or years before 2024 – back when the federal government (both the Morrison government and then the Albanese government) were very motivated to bring international students back in high volumes and quickly as they recognised that international students were vital to kick start the economy post-COVID.
Looking instead at the number students new to Australia in 2024 shows a very different picture. The number of VET enrolments who were new to Australia in 2024 was actually down a massive 47% on the 2023 figure and 21% lower than 2019. This decline was true for almost all of the top 15 nationalities of VET students.
The number of HE enrolments who were new students to Australia in 2024 was also lower than in 2023 – 11% lower. Looking deeper still though shows that, if we exclude Chinese enrolments (the number one nationality), new to Australia HE commencements were actually 24% lower in 2024 than in 2023. This is because the number of commencing Chinese HE students who were new to Australia in 2024 was actually 35% higher than in 2023. And this was up 94% versus 2019. Meanwhile the equivalent measure for Indian students (the number two nationality) shows 32% fewer new-to-Australia commencements than the 2023 figure and 8% fewer versus 2019. So, performance is certainly not even in the HE sector.
For the ELICOS sector, the first four months of 2024 saw overall commencements down by 26% versus the same months in 2023. The last 8 months of 2024 saw overall commencements down by 44%. This shows that the falls worsened as the year progressed and government changes aimed at shrinking the international education sector added up. (For more detail, see our full data report to be released Friday.)
Sadly, the future looks even worse for ELICOS. For the period since the 125% student visa application fee increase, 1 July 2024 to 28 Feb 2025, ELICOS Only student visa grants and applications are at their lowest levels since 2005, the year the records began.
In other words, in the last year, the Australian ELICOS sector has lost 20 years of investment in becoming a first-choice destination for international students from around the world. This has happened to address a problem to which the ELICOS sector arguably does not even contribute.
Reports from our members show that this has meant the loss of hundreds if not thousands of jobs already. It’s meant the closure of businesses already.
Reports are that more job losses are coming. These losses are not just from ELICOS colleges though. We are hearing from hospitality and tourism sector operators struggling because of the loss of ELICOS students who used to be core to their businesses.
Meanwhile, looking at total temporary visa holder numbers, student visa holders now make up only 18% of the total having decreased by 5% over 2024. That means 25,000 fewer students in Australia in December 2024 than in December 2023. However, that number has been more than replaced by 35,000 additional working holiday visa holders and 36,000 additional skilled employment visa holders. Are we really trying to lower the NOM?
Looking to the future, with another significant visa fee increase likely – up to $2,000 if Labor are re-elected and to $2,500 if the Liberal National Coalition are elected – and ELICOS numbers will worsen significantly. Again, ELICOS will be collateral damage. Their loss won’t contribute to any downturn in the NOM.
As for the NOM and concerns around a blow out in numbers, policy makers and pundits appear to be focusing on the wrong numbers. Yes, the NOM figures in 2023 and 2024 were high, record high. But just before this, COVID held our borders closed for nearly two years and the numbers were low, record low. In fact, they were negative.
Recognising the NOM is a statistical metric of considerable complexity (and questionable relevance), it pays to watch it as a trend, not at a single moment in time. Doing so shows the five-year average for the quarterly NOM figure leading up to COVID was +227,000 per quarter. The five-year average for the quarterly NOM figure since 2020 is +235,000. A difference of 8,000 extra temporary residents per quarter or a 3% increase.
Is a 3% increase really worth doing lasting damage to a sector that employs 250,000+ Australians? A sector that produces hundreds of thousands of graduates each year of whom 84% immediately return home on graduation, more favourable to future trade with Australia, more favourable to Australia’s interests, more favourable to Australians who visit their countries, more likely to return as tourists in the future?
The government has committed, in the recent Federal Budget, $195 million dollars per year for the next five years to the promotion of tourism in Australia. What is the single biggest contributor to Australia’s tourism sector’s earnings? It’s not the tennis, it’s not the Mardi Gras, it’s not the New Year’s Eve fireworks, and it’s not government ad campaigns. It’s international students and their visiting friends and families. They contribute approximately 40% of total tourism income.
If we want to grow tourism in Australia, maybe we could save some of that $195 million per year and simply start celebrating the amazing Australian success story that is the Australian international education sector. We could reverse the student visa fee increase for short term students who barely impact the NOM or housing, but do impact tourism, hospitality and retail.
And so, again, English Australia calls on the new government and all those who form Australia’s Federal 48th to urgently shift the rhetoric, the policy, and the approach to managing the sector. We call on the government to celebrate the value and contribution of the international education sector, as it does with the tourism sector. We urge a shift to visa fees and visa processing approaches that support the ELICOS sector, that support Australian jobs in education, tourism, hospitality, and retail.
Ian Aird is the CEO of English Australia.
