On Friday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics released overseas migration data for the 2023-24 financial year, and as has been predicted for some months now, actual net overseas migration (NOM) overshot budget forecasts.
Net overseas migration was 446,000 in 2023-24. And although that is down from 536,000 a year earlier, it is well above the 395,000 that was forecast in the budget papers.
International students were the largest group of migrant arrivals in 2023-24, at 207,000 (46 per cent of arrivals), although this was down from 278,000 (50 per cent of arrivals) in 2022-23.
This is the first time that the NOM had declined following the recovery from two years of border closures due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. In 2023-24, the number of migrant arrivals was 667,000, a decrease of 10% from the year before, from 739,000.
The budget forecast for NOM for 2024-25 is 260,000.
International student departures increased by 97 per cent from 2022-23, with 30,600 international students departing in comparison to 15,500 the year prior.
In response to the release of the ABS data, the Independent Tertiary Education Council Australia (ITECA) is calling for a more considered and thoughtful approach to international education within Australia’s broader migration strategy.
“A more thoughtful approach is needed, one that considers the distinct roles of skills training and higher education within Australia’s broader migration strategy. These sectors each play a valuable part in Australia’s economic and social fabric,” said Troy Williams, ITECA Chief Executive.
This week we expect the release of the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO).
