As we near the end of another term, and I have been finishing up a world tour with IDAT of international schools around the world, it seems a good time to dive into the Australian data YTD from Australian Government International Student Data. An analysis of the Australian Government’s international student data for the schools sector reveals several interesting trends emerging in 2026. While overall enrolments remain near historic highs, the story behind the numbers is changing. The Australian schools sector appears to be entering a new phase of growth, but unlike previous cycles, the most significant development is not the recovery of China. Instead, it is the increasing diversification of source markets.
China remains Australia’s largest and most important international schools market. Enrolments have continued to rise, reaching 6,149 students year-to-date compared with 4,704 in 2024. At first glance, this appears to be a strong endorsement of the sector’s recovery following the disruption of the COVID-19 years. However, a closer examination reveals a more nuanced picture. Commencements from China have declined from 443 in 2024 to 273 in 2026. This suggests that while existing students are remaining within the system and contributing to healthy enrolment numbers, the pipeline of new students may be slowing. Schools are still benefiting from the large cohorts that entered during the post-pandemic rebound, but future growth from China may be beginning to plateau. Chinese students are responding to uncertainty in their home economy, and some are choosing to study closer to home.[i]
While China continues to dominate in number-wise, some of the most exciting developments are occurring elsewhere. Europe has emerged as one of the success stories in the dataset. Commencements from Europe have increased from just 29 students in 2021 to 547 students in 2026. What was once a small market has become a significant contributor to new student recruitment. Within this trend, Germany stands out in particular. German commencements have risen from only 10 students in 2021 to 416 in 2026. Tradiationally, many Australian schools may have considered Germany primarily as an exchange market. Today, it appears to be evolving into a genuine strategic recruitment market and one that deserves far greater attention.
Japan is another market quietly rebounding post-COVID years. Unlike some markets that have experienced more dramatic peaks and troughs, Japan’s growth has been steady and consistent. Enrolments have doubled from 315 students in 2021 to 635 in 2026, while commencements have increased from 104 to 380 over the same period. The market has shown low volatility and positive growth every year since 2022.
South Korea is also strengthening. Although the growth has not been as dramatic as that seen in Europe or Germany, the trend remains firmly positive. Enrolments have risen from 819 students in 2021 to 974 in 2026, while commencements have increased from 202 to 342.
Perhaps the most surprising development is the emergence of Latin America. Starting from a very small base, enrolments have increased from 40 students in 2021 to 218 in 2026, while commencements have risen from just 12 students to 159. Although the absolute numbers remain modest compared with the major Asian markets, the growth rate is extraordinary. Latin America is now producing commencement numbers comparable to some long-established recruitment markets and may become an increasingly important contributor to future growth.
Not every market is moving in a positive direction. Vietnam, one of the strongest performers in the immediate post-pandemic period, appears to have stalled. Enrolments have fallen from 3,792 in 2024 to 2,536 in 2026, while commencements have declined sharply from 1,597 to 571. Given Vietnam’s importance to many Australian schools, this trend warrants close monitoring. The decline may reflect changing economic conditions, increased competition from other destinations, or the correction of an unusually strong post-pandemic surge.
Hong Kong appears to be entering a more mature phase. Enrolments have softened from 1,116 students in 2025 to 948 in 2026, while commencements have fallen from 525 in 2024 to 273 in 2026. Hong Kong remains an important market, but it is unlikely to be the major growth engine it once was.
Beyond individual markets, the most significant cautionary signal for the sector is the overall commencement trend. Commencements peaked at 6,499 students in 2024 before falling to 5,808 in 2025 and 5,154 in 2026. This distinction between enrolments and commencements is important. Enrolments represent today’s revenue and reflect the students already in the system. Commencements represent tomorrow’s enrolments and provide insight into future growth. While enrolments remain robust, the decline in commencements suggests that growth may begin to flatten over the next one to two years if recruitment pipelines are not replenished.
State-level data reveals some additional insights. Queensland has emerged as Australia’s leading state for new student recruitment, recording 1,861 commencements in 2026, well ahead of New South Wales and Victoria. However, Victoria remains Australia’s largest overall schools market, with more than 5,000 international school enrolments. Vietnam had previously been a prime source market for Victoria state schools, and the drop in commencement from Vietnam is perhaps a key indicator into the decline in overall numbers for the state. Queensland’s rapid growth suggests the balance of the market is shifting, while South Australia continues to perform exceptionally well relative to its size. These trends indicate that international school recruitment in Australia is becoming increasingly diversified geographically as well as demographically.
For school leaders, the implications are clear. The Australian schools sector is no longer dependent on one or two dominant source markets. Growth is increasingly being supported by a broader range of countries and regions, including Europe, Germany, Japan, South Korea and Latin America. This diversification makes the sector more resilient and less vulnerable to economic or political changes in any single market.
At the same time, schools should not assume that enrolment growth will continue automatically. China remains strong but may be reaching a more mature stage of growth. Vietnam has cooled significantly, and overall commencements are declining. The schools that succeed over the next five years are likely to be those that continue investing in market diversification, maintain strong recruitment pipelines, and adapt to a more competitive international landscape.
Australian school enrolments remain near record levels and the sector is arguably healthier and more diversified than at any point in recent memory. The challenge now is ensuring that today’s strong enrolment numbers are matched by tomorrow’s commencements.
[i] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-29/chinese-student-numbers-are-expected-to-take-turn-for-the-worse/106468846
